Friday, October 20, 2006

Making sense of Purdue

Really briefly here ...

So, we're going on the road, heading to West Lafayette, ready to take on Purdue. 5-2 Purdue, even, so they've shaken off the dust of the abysmal season they had last year and started winning again.

But this will not be shades of 2004. This will not be the defensive chess match ending in a glorious fumble and recovery. It's destined to be Shootout City. We all know what PJ Hill and the Badgers have been up to, but Purdue is getting its first shot at national exposure on ESPN and is bringing in an offense that has scored under 30 points four times this season. They're averaging close to 500 yards per game and over 320 of those are coming through the air.

What Purdue lacks is defense of any kind. Their defense might actually be worse than Minnesota's. The Boilermakers have surrendered an embarrassing number of points to some pretty embarrassing teams. D-IAA Indiana State scored thirty-freaking-five points on Purdue. Miami of Ohio banged in 31, and Ball State (lowly, lowly Ball State) managed 28.

What this boils down to is Wisconsin scoring on all but one or two of their possessions. The Boilermakers have a chance of keeping the score respectable if the Badgers' defensive secondary doesn't show up. But they will not be able to stop Hill, they won't win the turnover battle, and they'll lose the game.

Maybe I'll look stupid, but I'm calling it Wisconsin 45, Purdue 24.

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