Sweet but not Elite

The methodical first-round victory over Cal State-Fullerton was an unremarkable feat. The second-round scorching of Michael Beasley and Kansas State raised the hopes and expectations of Badger fans. And then Wisconsin ran into Stephen Curry and his friends from Davidson, and the season ended abruptly in Detroit.

What more can you say? Sports fans are greedy; they always want more. At the beginning of the season, I was prepared for a rebuilding year -- losing Alando Tucker and Kam Taylor, you had to expect a sub-par performance. All I was hoping for was securing that tenth straight NCAA tournament bid and waiting for next year, when we would unseat Michigan State or Indiana -- you know, whoever won the Big Ten title. Then, as the Badgers continued to win, I changed my mind: anything less than a Sweet Sixteen would be a disappointment for this cohesive group of genuine team players. Finally, as UW started to accumulate hardware, I thought to myself, "You know, with a break or two, this team could be in the Final Four ... or even ..."

But it was not to be. Stephen Curry and his third straight 30+ point game saw to that. And so we were able to watch Kansas hold off feisty Davidson, move on to the #1 seed-stocked Final Four, and eventually best Memphis, dragging the Tigers down by the throat after a couple of -- who could've seen that coming? -- missed free throws.

The point: this was an excellent season of Wisconsin basketball. Over 30 wins again, survival till the second weekend of the NCAA tournament, and hardware galore. However, the monkey on Bo Ryan's back is getting bigger: why do Wisconsin's conference championship teams make such abbreviated postseason runs? It's a question we'll need to deal with eventually; nobody knows how many conference titles you've won as long as you're bowing out against the likes of Davidson and UNLV. Extended runs in the Big Dance is what is keeping this program from getting to the next level. Frankly, until the Badgers make it to back-to-back Sweet Sixteens or further, the "No Respect!" that we hear so much about is richly deserved.

How Wisconsin wound up with a #3 seed

According to an interview with Steve Lavin and Brent Musburger during the play-in game (Mount Saint Mary's versus Coppin State), Selection Committee Chair Tom O'Connor said that Wisconsin wound up with a #3 seed because they were comparing Duke and UW and Duke beat the Badgers head-to-head.

No word on why Wisconsin's head-to-head win over Texas wasn't considered.

NCAA Tournament: Pod Preview

#3 Wisconsin vs. #14 California State-Fullerton: the Badgers will tip off against the Titans of Cal State-Fullerton at about 8:40 pm (Central) on Thursday night. So you don't need to take the day off of work in order to see Wisconsin play! (Operative word being NEED, of course. Go ahead and do it anyway. I am.)

With any luck, baseball power CSF won't be much of a challenge on the hardcourt for UW. They're not going to get much of a preview here. They've made it to the NCAA tournament just once, in 1978. And guess what? That year they made it all the way to the Final Four. They were the Big West champs this year, and they boast a 24-8 record -- but those 8 losses include defeats at the hands of Pacific, Wright State, Central Michigan, and two to UC-Santa Barbara. CSF was a midmajor team that avoided scheduling major powers and as such wasn't much of a punching bag. They did put up a fight against St. Mary's, the ten-seed in the South, leading by five in the second half until the Gaels came into their own and wound up taking over en route to a ten-point margin of victory. Nittany White-Out is doing the cheering-for-the-conference thing and has compared Cal State-Fullerton to Wisconsin:

This is an easy game to predict. Wisconsin has a knack for slowing down fast-paced offenses ... 70 would be a good benchmark for CS-Fullerton to aim for. Unfortunately for them, 70 against Wisconsin’s defense would be like running into a brick wall blindfolded. Mark it down. A blowout unwatchable game for the Badgers in Round 1.

#6 USC vs. #11 Kansas State: Much has been written about this matchup. As Colin Cowherd stated yesterday on his occasionally-decent radio show, it's good TV: Mayo vs. Beasley. Two mercenaries who could be commanding NBA money at this time next year. (In Mayo's case, of course, since he's at USC there's a chance he's pulling in an NBA-style salary right now. But that's neither here nor there.) I know next to nothing about this matchup, but you ought to read what people who might have some idea what they're talking about with regard to this matchup. As an added bonus, here's a piece on a hypothetical matchup between Wisconsin and Kansas State.

My bracket says: Take the favorites through the entire pod. UW to the Sweet Sixteen via two school from SoCal.

Not in love with the #3 seed

Not because it's a #3 seed -- that's fine. We had our shot at a #2 last year and that went horribly, maybe the change of scenery at #3 will be helpful. But that's one hell of a 6/11 matchup we're looking at; either we get Mayo (20.8 ppg) and USC or Beasley (26.5 ppg, 12.4 rpg) and Kansas State. Still, these stars are just freshmen, and with an experienced senior like Michael Flowers taking responsibility for these stars, there's a pretty good chance for UW to make the Sweet Sixteen. I'll say it's a 98% chance to win against Cal State-Fullerton and 60% to move on to the next weekend. Choosing between Gonzaga, Davidson, and Georgetown is no fun, but I do think Georgetown is ripe for the picking. An Elite Eight would be an incredible achievement for the team that was supposed to finish fifth in the conference.

That said, I believe that despite their lower seeds, Michigan State and Purdue have easier opposition on their way to the second weekend (high seeds they'll face will be #4 Pitt and #3 Xavier, respectively). Poor Indiana got hosed, not just with an 8-seed, but drawing UNC in the first weekend? Ugh. Really thought the Buckeyes were going to make the field too. Can we blame Georgia for that? I'd like to blame Georgia. Tough break for Matta's crew. I guess they did need a Big Ten Tournament win after all.

Let's not speak of the hockey team. If they luck into a postseason berth it'll be a miracle -- and their stay will be brief. You drop one game to St. Cloud in your last fifteen tries and then get SWEPT in the WCHA playoffs? Pathetic.

Anyway ... hoops on Thursday and Saturday this weekend. Go Badgers!

Badgers overcome Spartans, officiating

49 fouls. 56 free throws. Four Spartans fouling out. Three fouls called on three-point attempts (two of which actually sunk, leading to four-point plays). This is what the Big Ten puts forth when the entire nation is watching? Seriously? Ed Hightower and his gang of whistle-blowing goons ought to be ashamed. LET THEM PLAY, guys. LET THEM PLAY.

49 fouls, and though 30 went against Michigan State, the biggest of the game by far was the first whistle of the second half. That one that sent Michael Flowers to the bench just 32 seconds after intermission. After his departure, the Spartans ran their lead from 29-27 to 39-29, and it looked like it was going to be an ugly afternoon for Wisconsin. With Flowers restricted in his defensive duties, Spartan sharpshooter Drew Neitzel had a field day; the kid that Flowers shut down at the Kohl Center mere weeks ago had every opportunity to pick and choose, and he made good.

On an afternoon when the Badgers shot just 37% from the field, free throws kept them alive, and even those didn't go smoothly; Brian Butch missed four straight, the normally ultra-reliable Jason Bohannon missed both of his in the closing seconds -- shots that would've taken the margin from 2 to 4 in the last possession of the game.

Make no mistake, the Spartans were the number one contributors to their own demise. (And make no mistake: anything that brings on a good old-fashioned Tom Izzo whinefest is a good thing.) It was made clear early on that the officials were going to blow plays dead at every opportunity, and Michigan State failed to adjust their style of play. The end result: all three of their big men -- Ibok, Suton, and Naymick -- fouled out in a 56-second span in the second half, forcing MSU to match smaller players up with the likes of Brian Butch.

An unfortunate consequence of this game was the potential loss of Trevon Hughes, who's now being called a game-time decision. The Badgers shouldn't need him today, but they will absolutely require him through the NCAA tournament. He was spotted wearing a walking boot. As far as I'm concerned, it would be better for the Badgers to lose today without him than risk further injury and bow out early from the Big Dance as a result of his absence.

So now the Badgers get Illinois in the final game. The ten seed in the Big Ten Tournament, doesn't a part of you want to see the Illini win and get the auto-bid? But there's so much at stake here to root for something like that. If MSU had pulled it out yesterday, yeah, I'm cheering for the Illini all the way. It would be much better, though, to see the Badgers put two trophies in the case before the Big Dance even starts, and to cling to the dream that maybe they'll have to make room for a third.

Badger Hockey puts one foot in grave

Home ice would've been nice. The Badgers went on the road and were shut out by St. Cloud State tonight, 3-0. This marked the first postseason shutout for the Badgers since 1997. 88% of teams who win the first game of a WCHA postseason series wind up advancing to the Final Five, so the Badgers have their work cut out for them. Just a couple items here from Minnesota-Duluth radio dude Bruce Ciskie:

Wisconsin needs to win this series to get in the NCAAs in all likelihood, as they are firmly on the bubble right now. With Boston University, UMD, and Notre Dame - among others - knocking on the door, Bucky better find a way to win two games this weekend, or the Kohl Center may end up being mighty empty in two weeks.

...

If you're a UMD fan, root for ... SCSU [to beat] Wisconsin. A sweep and a UMD sweep likely would swing the UMD/UW PWR comparison for UMD.

Uh oh.

Badgers will meet the Spartans tomorrow

The Big Ten Tournament -- which is apparently the worst ever -- rolls on, and the Badgers will get their chance to put together the State of Michigan Sweep tomorrow when they take on Michigan State. The tip is at 12:40 pm (Central time) and the game will be aired on CBS, not the Big Ten Network. I emphasize that because the BTN stole another one from the general viewing public tonight when it kept 10-seed Illinois's victory over #2 Purdue off of most cable systems. (Props to one Purdue blog for foreseeing trouble when Penn State didn't off the Illini.)

Michigan State advanced due to a rare (in 2008) virtuoso performance from Drew Neitzel. Michael Flowers is going to have to shut Neitzel down again. He'll be up to the challenge after hounding Manny Harris all day today. With any luck Brian Butch will stay true to his style of play and not come out timid after his bout of foul trouble today. Bo Ryan will have the opportunity to boost his record against Tom Izzo to a gaudy 11-3 with a victory ... and I believe he'll get it.

Final score: Wisconsin 61, Michigan State 55.

Badgers dominate Michigan in Big Ten Tournament Quarterfinals

The gameplan for defeating the 2008 Michigan Wolverines is uncomplicated: stop Manny Harris. Michael Flowers did just that, and the end result was defensive dominance: Michigan shot 20% from the field, which was actually improved by UM's 6-for-24 performance from beyond the arc. That's right: the Wolverines were 4-for-26 on 2-point attempts, a dismal 15.4%. That pathetic rate led to a record-low performance; till today, no team had ever finished a Big Ten Tournament game with fewer than 40 points.

Some will exclaim, "surely you can't be referring to a 51-point effort as dominance!" Oh, but I can. Much of that was due to Ed Hightower's fondness for whistling Brian Butch early and often, limiting the Polar Bear to 16 minutes on the floor.

Now we wait for the winner of the Michigan State/Ohio State game. I think Michigan State is the better matchup for the Badgers, so that's who I'm cheering for.

Bracket tip courtesy of the Big East Tournament

Pick all of these teams to bow out early because they ain't that good. West Virginia squeaks by Providence and they're a lock all of a sudden? Seriously? And the Big Ten is the conference that's "down?"

If that conference gets two teams to the Sweet Sixteen it'll be a miracle.

Wisconsin will face Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament

Early this afternoon, the Michigan Wolverines outsmacked Iowa in the opening game of the Big Ten Tournament, coming away with a glorious 55-47 victory. And by glorious I clearly mean stupefyingly dull; 12 minutes with a field goal? COMBINED?! Wow. Maize 'N' Brew talks about the Wolverines running their victory total to the double digits and the privilege of facing the Badgers tomorrow:

On a positive note, this is Michigan's first Big Ten tournament win under Beilein and it ensures Michigan will finish the season with double digits in the win column. Michigan also has the good fortune of drawing Wisconsin, a team it scared the holy hell out of two months ago, as its next opponent. During the teams' second meeting in Ann Arbor, Michigan came within three points of topping the then 11th ranked Badgers. This is even more remarkable when you consider the Badgers shot 60% from the floor during the second half, and they almost lost. Good sign? Maybe. You can take it for what its worth.

As much as I'd like to say it's a good omen, Michigan lost its next three games in embarrassing fashion, including a double digit home loss to Minnesota. Looking back Michigan lost the season's first meeting with Wisconsin by 16. Further, the Badgers shot just over or just under 50% against Michigan in both games. Better defense or not, Wisconsin isn't going to pull an Iowa and shoot 32%FG and 12% from three. No one should be holding their breath for an upset.

Pardon my discouraging tone but despite the near upset, this is not going to be pretty for Michigan. Not in the slightest. At least the Michigan fans can enjoy the victory and the fact that beating Iowa produces outbursts like this from BHGP.

Looking ahead, the Prospector (author of the Cardinal and White Chronicles) engages in some amateur bracketology here and here) in order to make a case for the Badgers to get a #2 seed in the Big Dance; he winds up making the case for the other team in both cases. So it goes. Being the top #3 seed puts UW closer (geographically) to Madison for the Regional round, which is a bonus.

The run-up to Big Ten Tournament time

Nerdy graphs: KJ at the excellent Spartans Weblog revels in his nerdery, and why not? After all, it can produce super informative third-order polynomial plots!:

The idea is to smooth out individual game performance to see the general direction a team’s performance seemed to be moving in at a given point in the season. Intuitively, this should tell us whether a team is on the upswing or downswing as the regular season ends–although I can’t definitively say the method is predictive. I should also note there are a couple flaws in this approach:

* It doesn’t account for quality of opposition–an upward trend could represent a grouping of weak opponents on the schedule (or vice versa).
* It doesn’t account for home/away game. Other than the occasional three-game bunch of home or away games for a particular team, though, the home/away factor should be smoothed out by the trendlines in most cases.

As expected, the Badgers come up with the best graph:



Essentially, if your team is improving, you'll see that blue line start trending up and the red move down. And does it ever in the Badgers' case! KJ is careful to note that this may be misleading, as the Penn State and Northwestern massacres are likely pulling those curves apart artificially, but any time you can get a Spartan fan to call your team's performance "frightening," you're definitely getting somewhere.

What they're saying about the Big Ten Tournament: Obviously the time for prognostication is upon us. Here are some selected takes:

From the Barn sees Purdue over Wisconsin in the final

Purdue fans at Off the Tracks have that same machup but believe the Badgers will finally best Purdue

Statistical guru Ken Pomeroy lays out odds that would cry out for calls of homerism if I generated them: the Badgers have a 56%(!) chance of winning the Big Ten Tournament, a 72.6% chance of making the finals, and a frickin' 95.8% chance of beating the winner of the Iowa/Michigan game. Does that sound absurdly high to anyone else? I mean, you're telling me that if Wisconsin and Iowa or Michigan play 20 times, the Badgers win 19? Really?

In the name of Marchifornication, the Hawkeye geniuses behind BHGP have a sample bracket up, and ... hey, wait a minute ...

Memorable occasions that usually involve Badger losses are recounted at Ohio State's Buckeye Commentary

So what's really going to happen during the Big Ten Tournament? Glad you asked; my picks are up in the comments at Spartans Weblog where I am going to win a sweet frickin' t-shirt:

DAY ONE

Iowa over Michigan: The two most plodding offenses in the conference waddle to a combined 70 points. Iowa wins by two, which would pretty much be a blowout

Illinois over Penn State: The Lions got their big season-ending win against IU. There's nothing left in the tank. The walking wounded have a LONG trip to the tournament and will have a longer one home.

Minnesota over Northwestern: Their opponent isn't Michigan, so the Wildcats can't win.

DAY TWO

Wisconsin over Iowa: Too many weapons. Iowa can't overcome the all-out attack the rested, healthy Badgers have planned. Michael Flowers blocks five shots.

Ohio State over Michigan State: MSU is in the Dance; the Buckeyes might be. The desperate Bucks pull away late, much like they did on Sunday, which shocks exactly nobody as the Spartans have been horrendous (3-6) away from East Lansing against Big Ten foes

Purdue over Illinois: With a week to go in the regular season, the Boilermakers thought they were going to be Big Ten Champions. That melted away and now they're on a mission of vengeance. Illinois is unceremoniously shoved out of the way.

Indiana over Minnesota: I want to pick the Gophers, but the tournament's located in the state of Indiana so I just can't do it. The Hoosiers have the talent to win and the crowd will be behind them, but the contrast between the mess Kelvin Sampson made and the rock-solid foundation Tubby Smith is laying couldn't be more stark. If this is in Chicago I pick the Gophers without hesitation.

DAY THREE

Wisconsin over Ohio State: The Badgers avenge last year's embarrassing tournament loss by getting their second win over the Buckeyes in 2008.

Purdue over Indiana: The Battle for the State of Indiana finally turns Purdue's way as an uninspired, undercoached Hoosier squad comes out flat.

DAY FOUR: TITLE GAME

Purdue over Wisconsin: Purdue has been the monkey on the Badgers' back, and UW's futility when the train-guys show up continues. Purdue's frustrating defense makes the difference and the Boilermakers hoist a trophy after all.

Post-season awards and tournament projections

When the two groups conflict, choose the media over the coaches. It holds true in polling, unfortunately -- the Badgers are #6 in the eyes of the coaches (or whoever's actually submitting ballots on their behalf) and #8 in the AP. Those single-digit numbers have been deemed "glorious" by most.

Wisconsin's a major conference champ that's ranked in the top 8 by everyone, so that should be a #2 seed all the way, right? Wrong:

The Sporting News' Ryan Fagan has Wisconsin as ... a 3 seed, of course.

Joe Lunardi had the Badgers in as a #2 before his last update, when he bumped them to a #3 in favor of Georgetown. I guess that's what a season-ending win over the second-place team in the Big East to secure an outright conference title will do for you. Still no explanation (outside of the ESPN premium channels, anyway) for why the Big XII gets two #2 seeds in Kansas and Texas, especially when Texas (1) has 5 losses to Wisconsin's 4 and (2) was beaten head-to-head by the Badgers. It would be nice for UW if Kansas, Texas, or Duke would bow out really early in their respective conference tournaments.

The all-conference teams are out, and as you might expect from a championship team without a superstar, the accolades are numerous but spread out, with Brian Butch garnering first-team standing from the coaches and the media. (And again, this is another opportunity to pound home the sentiment that the media's opinion trumps the coaches; where the coaches put Drew Neitzel of MSU on the first team, the media picked Jamar Butler of Ohio State. Badger fans will still insist that such a thing is not exactly right but the post-season award that actually means something is already sitting in a trophy case at the Kohl Center, and that wasn't up to a bunch of half-interested voters.)

Is Bo Ryan the class of the Big Ten? Possibly, but that's not going far enough for John Gasaway -- he taps Bo as National Coach of the Decade!