UW draws Tarheels in Big Ten/ACC Challenge

The powers that be have apparently decided that Ohio State and Wisconsin will battle it out for top dog in the Big Ten this year. Wisconsin will play at #1 UNC for the marquee game of the Big Ten/ACC Challenge on November 29. Ohio State will take on Duke. Evidently the honeymoon is over for Tom Izzo and the Spartans as they get unremarkable Florida State as their opponent.

My thoughts: mark this one down in the loss column, in pen, right now.

Sweet but not Elite

The methodical first-round victory over Cal State-Fullerton was an unremarkable feat. The second-round scorching of Michael Beasley and Kansas State raised the hopes and expectations of Badger fans. And then Wisconsin ran into Stephen Curry and his friends from Davidson, and the season ended abruptly in Detroit.

What more can you say? Sports fans are greedy; they always want more. At the beginning of the season, I was prepared for a rebuilding year -- losing Alando Tucker and Kam Taylor, you had to expect a sub-par performance. All I was hoping for was securing that tenth straight NCAA tournament bid and waiting for next year, when we would unseat Michigan State or Indiana -- you know, whoever won the Big Ten title. Then, as the Badgers continued to win, I changed my mind: anything less than a Sweet Sixteen would be a disappointment for this cohesive group of genuine team players. Finally, as UW started to accumulate hardware, I thought to myself, "You know, with a break or two, this team could be in the Final Four ... or even ..."

But it was not to be. Stephen Curry and his third straight 30+ point game saw to that. And so we were able to watch Kansas hold off feisty Davidson, move on to the #1 seed-stocked Final Four, and eventually best Memphis, dragging the Tigers down by the throat after a couple of -- who could've seen that coming? -- missed free throws.

The point: this was an excellent season of Wisconsin basketball. Over 30 wins again, survival till the second weekend of the NCAA tournament, and hardware galore. However, the monkey on Bo Ryan's back is getting bigger: why do Wisconsin's conference championship teams make such abbreviated postseason runs? It's a question we'll need to deal with eventually; nobody knows how many conference titles you've won as long as you're bowing out against the likes of Davidson and UNLV. Extended runs in the Big Dance is what is keeping this program from getting to the next level. Frankly, until the Badgers make it to back-to-back Sweet Sixteens or further, the "No Respect!" that we hear so much about is richly deserved.

Badgers will meet the Spartans tomorrow

The Big Ten Tournament -- which is apparently the worst ever -- rolls on, and the Badgers will get their chance to put together the State of Michigan Sweep tomorrow when they take on Michigan State. The tip is at 12:40 pm (Central time) and the game will be aired on CBS, not the Big Ten Network. I emphasize that because the BTN stole another one from the general viewing public tonight when it kept 10-seed Illinois's victory over #2 Purdue off of most cable systems. (Props to one Purdue blog for foreseeing trouble when Penn State didn't off the Illini.)

Michigan State advanced due to a rare (in 2008) virtuoso performance from Drew Neitzel. Michael Flowers is going to have to shut Neitzel down again. He'll be up to the challenge after hounding Manny Harris all day today. With any luck Brian Butch will stay true to his style of play and not come out timid after his bout of foul trouble today. Bo Ryan will have the opportunity to boost his record against Tom Izzo to a gaudy 11-3 with a victory ... and I believe he'll get it.

Final score: Wisconsin 61, Michigan State 55.

Badgers dominate Michigan in Big Ten Tournament Quarterfinals

The gameplan for defeating the 2008 Michigan Wolverines is uncomplicated: stop Manny Harris. Michael Flowers did just that, and the end result was defensive dominance: Michigan shot 20% from the field, which was actually improved by UM's 6-for-24 performance from beyond the arc. That's right: the Wolverines were 4-for-26 on 2-point attempts, a dismal 15.4%. That pathetic rate led to a record-low performance; till today, no team had ever finished a Big Ten Tournament game with fewer than 40 points.

Some will exclaim, "surely you can't be referring to a 51-point effort as dominance!" Oh, but I can. Much of that was due to Ed Hightower's fondness for whistling Brian Butch early and often, limiting the Polar Bear to 16 minutes on the floor.

Now we wait for the winner of the Michigan State/Ohio State game. I think Michigan State is the better matchup for the Badgers, so that's who I'm cheering for.

Wisconsin will face Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament

Early this afternoon, the Michigan Wolverines outsmacked Iowa in the opening game of the Big Ten Tournament, coming away with a glorious 55-47 victory. And by glorious I clearly mean stupefyingly dull; 12 minutes with a field goal? COMBINED?! Wow. Maize 'N' Brew talks about the Wolverines running their victory total to the double digits and the privilege of facing the Badgers tomorrow:

On a positive note, this is Michigan's first Big Ten tournament win under Beilein and it ensures Michigan will finish the season with double digits in the win column. Michigan also has the good fortune of drawing Wisconsin, a team it scared the holy hell out of two months ago, as its next opponent. During the teams' second meeting in Ann Arbor, Michigan came within three points of topping the then 11th ranked Badgers. This is even more remarkable when you consider the Badgers shot 60% from the floor during the second half, and they almost lost. Good sign? Maybe. You can take it for what its worth.

As much as I'd like to say it's a good omen, Michigan lost its next three games in embarrassing fashion, including a double digit home loss to Minnesota. Looking back Michigan lost the season's first meeting with Wisconsin by 16. Further, the Badgers shot just over or just under 50% against Michigan in both games. Better defense or not, Wisconsin isn't going to pull an Iowa and shoot 32%FG and 12% from three. No one should be holding their breath for an upset.

Pardon my discouraging tone but despite the near upset, this is not going to be pretty for Michigan. Not in the slightest. At least the Michigan fans can enjoy the victory and the fact that beating Iowa produces outbursts like this from BHGP.

Looking ahead, the Prospector (author of the Cardinal and White Chronicles) engages in some amateur bracketology here and here) in order to make a case for the Badgers to get a #2 seed in the Big Dance; he winds up making the case for the other team in both cases. So it goes. Being the top #3 seed puts UW closer (geographically) to Madison for the Regional round, which is a bonus.

The run-up to Big Ten Tournament time

Nerdy graphs: KJ at the excellent Spartans Weblog revels in his nerdery, and why not? After all, it can produce super informative third-order polynomial plots!:

The idea is to smooth out individual game performance to see the general direction a team’s performance seemed to be moving in at a given point in the season. Intuitively, this should tell us whether a team is on the upswing or downswing as the regular season ends–although I can’t definitively say the method is predictive. I should also note there are a couple flaws in this approach:

* It doesn’t account for quality of opposition–an upward trend could represent a grouping of weak opponents on the schedule (or vice versa).
* It doesn’t account for home/away game. Other than the occasional three-game bunch of home or away games for a particular team, though, the home/away factor should be smoothed out by the trendlines in most cases.

As expected, the Badgers come up with the best graph:



Essentially, if your team is improving, you'll see that blue line start trending up and the red move down. And does it ever in the Badgers' case! KJ is careful to note that this may be misleading, as the Penn State and Northwestern massacres are likely pulling those curves apart artificially, but any time you can get a Spartan fan to call your team's performance "frightening," you're definitely getting somewhere.

What they're saying about the Big Ten Tournament: Obviously the time for prognostication is upon us. Here are some selected takes:

From the Barn sees Purdue over Wisconsin in the final

Purdue fans at Off the Tracks have that same machup but believe the Badgers will finally best Purdue

Statistical guru Ken Pomeroy lays out odds that would cry out for calls of homerism if I generated them: the Badgers have a 56%(!) chance of winning the Big Ten Tournament, a 72.6% chance of making the finals, and a frickin' 95.8% chance of beating the winner of the Iowa/Michigan game. Does that sound absurdly high to anyone else? I mean, you're telling me that if Wisconsin and Iowa or Michigan play 20 times, the Badgers win 19? Really?

In the name of Marchifornication, the Hawkeye geniuses behind BHGP have a sample bracket up, and ... hey, wait a minute ...

Memorable occasions that usually involve Badger losses are recounted at Ohio State's Buckeye Commentary

So what's really going to happen during the Big Ten Tournament? Glad you asked; my picks are up in the comments at Spartans Weblog where I am going to win a sweet frickin' t-shirt:

DAY ONE

Iowa over Michigan: The two most plodding offenses in the conference waddle to a combined 70 points. Iowa wins by two, which would pretty much be a blowout

Illinois over Penn State: The Lions got their big season-ending win against IU. There's nothing left in the tank. The walking wounded have a LONG trip to the tournament and will have a longer one home.

Minnesota over Northwestern: Their opponent isn't Michigan, so the Wildcats can't win.

DAY TWO

Wisconsin over Iowa: Too many weapons. Iowa can't overcome the all-out attack the rested, healthy Badgers have planned. Michael Flowers blocks five shots.

Ohio State over Michigan State: MSU is in the Dance; the Buckeyes might be. The desperate Bucks pull away late, much like they did on Sunday, which shocks exactly nobody as the Spartans have been horrendous (3-6) away from East Lansing against Big Ten foes

Purdue over Illinois: With a week to go in the regular season, the Boilermakers thought they were going to be Big Ten Champions. That melted away and now they're on a mission of vengeance. Illinois is unceremoniously shoved out of the way.

Indiana over Minnesota: I want to pick the Gophers, but the tournament's located in the state of Indiana so I just can't do it. The Hoosiers have the talent to win and the crowd will be behind them, but the contrast between the mess Kelvin Sampson made and the rock-solid foundation Tubby Smith is laying couldn't be more stark. If this is in Chicago I pick the Gophers without hesitation.

DAY THREE

Wisconsin over Ohio State: The Badgers avenge last year's embarrassing tournament loss by getting their second win over the Buckeyes in 2008.

Purdue over Indiana: The Battle for the State of Indiana finally turns Purdue's way as an uninspired, undercoached Hoosier squad comes out flat.

DAY FOUR: TITLE GAME

Purdue over Wisconsin: Purdue has been the monkey on the Badgers' back, and UW's futility when the train-guys show up continues. Purdue's frustrating defense makes the difference and the Boilermakers hoist a trophy after all.

2008 Big Ten Men's Basketball Tournament Bracket is set

Michigan almost kept things interesting this afternoon, but midway through the second half Purdue pulled away and wound up beating the Wolverines, securing the #2 seed in the conference tourney as a result. Michigan will play #8 seed Iowa at 11 am on Thursday to tip this thing off, and the Badgers will play the winner of that match on Friday at 11 am.

Click the image below to get your full-sized graphical version of the tournament bracket, presented in handy .jpg form for better desktop-wallpaper purposes.

Outright championship is official: Wisconsin 65, Northwestern 52

The Badgers had no problems whatsoever with the Wildcats as they secured a double-digit victory in front of what essentially amounted to a home crowd in Evanston (Matt LePay said that 80% of the crowd was wearing red and emphasized that this was a pretty conservative estimate). Bring on the Big Ten Tournament! The Badgers will be the #1 seed and will face the winner of the 8/9 game at 11 am on Friday in Indianapolis. The participants in that game will be determined tomorrow but as of right now could include Penn State, Iowa, Michigan, or Illinois.

All we need now is a North Dakota hockey victory and this weekend will be count as good.

Rising to the top on Senior Night

The team. This year, it's all about the team.

Don't get me wrong -- last year was about the team, too. But this year there aren't any superstars to promote. This year there wasn't another clear favorite in the conference; there was no Oden/Conley connection, there was no 37-1 Illinois team, there was just a trophy waiting for someone to go out there and earn it. This team coalesced and somehow, unexpectedly, Bo Ryan worked his magic, getting the most out of the recruits experts around the Midwest declared "good but not great" and leading a championship squad for the fourth time in seven years (three times in the regular season, once in the conference tournament).

The Badgers don't lose very much at the Kohl Center, so when I made my prediction about last night's game I didn't see a loss. But the Nittany Lions had put together a miniature hot streak and had, like the Badgers, started to really find their identity as a team. I don't think anybody foresaw the 36-point margin of victory that the Badgers secured, but then again it's likely the victory would have been less lopsided if Jamelle Cornley had been healthy enough to play. Add in a sub-30% shooting percentage for the Nittany Lions and, well, that's ballgame.

Wisconsin looked good; indeed, if you click through to Black Shoe Diaries above, Mike says "Even though Penn State was getting killed it was kind of a joy to see the Badgers playing the game so well. They could really do some damage in the tournament if they play like that." And that's really the kind of reaction this team evokes. When one player is having an off-night, another fills in without hesitation and keeps the Badger victories coming. Last night everyone stepped up, whether it was Marcus Landry scoring Wisconsin's first seven points, Brian Butch contributing 12, Stiemsma with 10, Flowers with 8 boards and 9 assists, Krabbenhoft with a monster dunk(!), or Tanner Bronson playing that sweet string music from 24 feet away(!!!).

And they've done it all without a trace of arrogance, without any of the chest-thumping antics that turn you from a winner to a gloater. (They're leaving that to the fans, it seems; as BadgerCentric says, "Our opponents' student sections rush the floor when they beat us. Our students rush the floor when we win championships."

I do want to give a special shout-out to Purdue. It's tough to watch another team win a championship when you've had their number all year. Trust me, Wisconsin fans know this from experience. How many times have we beaten Michigan State only to bow out in the first round of the Big Dance and watch them go to the Final Four? How many times have we beaten Ohio State in football just to see them collect their hardware at the end of the season anyway? I really do feel for all of you Purdue fans; your team is a fantastic surprise (you think Wisconsin came out of nowhere this year? What about Purdue!?) and I don't look forward to seeing the Badgers match up against the Boilermakers in the Big Ten Tournament if it comes down to them. As Walter Sobchek would say, Purdue is a worthy adversary, and any team that winds up opposite them in the conference or national tournament has much to dread.

However, despite all that, it would be nice to keep this trophy to ourselves in Madison. The Badgers have a day to celebrate and then need to make sure the Wildcats of Northwestern don't sneak up on them.

Big Ten Champs!

Wisconsin 77, Penn State 41 means that Wisconsin has clinched at least a share of the Big Ten title. A win over Northwestern on Saturday means Bo and Co. don't have to share the trophy.

More tomorrow when we plead for more playing time for the master of the monster triple, Tanner Bronson.

Photo: UWBadgers.com

Penn State at Wisconsin -- 8 pm, Big Ten Network

There's not much good to say about Penn State basketball these days: they don't win much, and their only win of note this year came at home against Michigan State, a team that's known to become Mr. Hyde when it leaves East Lansing (that is, if Mr. Hyde was 5'2", 97 pounds). Penn State has lost to Michigan, Iowa, and twice to Minnesota. You may remember them from such games as Wisconsin 80, Penn State 55 -- and that was a road victory for the Badgers. (That game, unfortunately, led to the end of the road for the exciting Geary Claxton, a guy who can take a game over and be a true wild card on a night like tonight.)

While the Badgers do have to play forty good minutes tonight, this game should not be a source of major discomfort. Further, certain Penn State bloggers are almost bound not to care what happens, having been recently anointed Best of the Big Ten -- and fully deserving said honor. So instead of trying to find something substantive about Penn State basketball, why not just read this completely factual conversation their head football coach had with Bill Cowher.

Let's call it Wisconsin 70, Penn State 60, and hope that it's not even that close.

THE Ohio State University takes down Purdue

I don't know whether it was my pledge to indulge the Buckeyes' love affair with the definite article or simply the promise of a sweet, sweet chaw, but I'm going to go ahead and take responsibility for the Ohio State Univeristy's basketball triumph over former conference leader Purdue in Columbus tonight. The Buckeyes won 80-77 in overtime.

To be perfectly honest it's amazing that the Bucks managed to pull this one out, especially considering that for much of the second half their gameplan consisted of fouling Boilermaker players who had picked up their dribble in completely senseless places and allowing slightly-contested threes to go in. But Jamar Butler decided that the Thad Matta express needed some steam heading into the NIT (let's face it, that win wasn't nearly enough to get the Buckeyes off the bubble) and exploded for 23 points in the second half and overtime and picked his team up when they were way, way down.

A lot of sound and fury winds up signifying nothing in the end, and unless the Badgers do the improbable and drop a home game to Penn State or somehow all get arrested or deathly ill before the Northwestern trip, an outright Big Ten title and a #1 seed in the conference tournament should come pretty easily to this team.

Hats off to the Buckeyes for doing what Wisconsin couldn't all year and allowing this team to back its way into the Big Ten title by itself. Toward the end of the game, Brent Musburger stated that "the celebration is starting in Madison!" I don't see it or hear it or taste it so I'd better go out and find it. Musburger's never been wrong about that kind of thing, right?

OK Badger fans -- wear red today

Something you're used to doing, I'm sure, but today let's make it scarlet instead of cardinal. Thad Matta is a better coach than Matt Painter, Ohio State has talent that's at least on par with Purdue's, and the game's at Ohio State's majestically-named Value City Arena -- plus the Buckeyes have got to be amped up to play spoiler.

Tell you what, Bucks ... if you win tonight, I'll fulfill your deepest desire: during over the course of the Big Ten Tournament, I'll refer to your school as THE Ohio State University.

Thank you, Spartans: Big Ten now a two-horse race

Michigan State put up 59 points in the first half against Indiana and never looked back, reaching triple digits in a home win over the Hoosiers.

So now it all comes down to Wisconsin and Purdue. Penn State visits the Badgers on Wednesday, then the Badgers close out the season on the road at Northwestern. Purdue has to go on the road twice: they visit struggling Ohio State on Tuesday and Michigan on Sunday. It looks like a 2-0 finish for both teams, which would give the Boilermakers the #1 seed in the Big Ten Tournament, but those Buckeyes could surprise Purdue.

Until then, though, we salute the school whose mascot is a man in a dress: thanks again, Spartans!

Wisconsin 57, Michigan State 42: That's domination

When Trevon Hughes put up a three-pointer with 3:19 to go and the Badgers already up by 14, you have to imagine the only thought going through his head was, "Why not?"

In the early going, the Badgers looked to be in the middle of another tight, competitive game against a strong conference rival, especially since Spartan big man Goran Suton was having a career day. Suton went on a four-minute rampage early in the game during which the Spartans went from a 7-6 deficit to a 16-11 lead -- all points coming courtesy of Suton. He was having a career day, one that almost saw him almost come up with a double-double at halftime (12 points, 9 boards).

Brian Butch ended Suton's ten-point outburst with a three-ball, and everything changed.

You have to give it to the Polar Bear -- a big man who can knock down triples does indeed change everything. Suddenly he's not just a goon waiting to clean up an offensive board or flush a dunk under the rim, he's a sniper -- someone who can pull back, get you three quick ones and sprint down the court to block a shot. That's something that a lot of teams lack and many teams can't defend. The Spartans certainly couldn't.

Tom Izzo said that much of the Spartans' problem last night resulted in missed assignments on Butch. That's no surprise. But the fact that Badgers turned the ball over just ONE TIME -- the WHOLE GAME -- also helped. The Spartans just had six turnovers, so this was a really cleanly-played game. That also helps the Badgers' case: a lack of turnovers means that MSU didn't give the game away, the Badgers won this one through sheer force of will. Tip of the hat also to Michael Flowers, who singlehandedly took Spartan point-generator Drew Neitzel out of this game. (BadgerCentric notes that Flowers has been holding his elbow a lot during the last two games, which could be a source of worry ... or could be nothing. I dunno.)

The Wisconsin Sports Rant pretty well encapsulates my thoughts in this line: "It’s ironic that as good as the Badgers were last year, the 2008 edition might have a better chance at playing deep into March." Exactly! This team is playing much more complete basketball -- strong defense, scoring from every player, lots of steals and blocks, very little fouling, great discipline and clean ball-handling -- than last year's star-studded team. I don't see a slip against the likes of Texas A&M-Corpus Christi this year.

There are a couple of bigger-picture, near-future things to love about this game as well: first, with the game being on ESPN2 instead of the Big Ten Network, there's a chance that more poll voters and (more importantly) NCAA Tournament Selection Committee members saw the Badgers put MSU in the hurt locker. At this point I have to think that Wisconsin is regarded as one of the lower three-seeds, but that dominant performance could well have changed some minds. BadgerCentric makes another astute observation:

We've lost four games, to teams ranked #7, #16, and #21. We've beaten the #5 team in the country, which has the same record as us, at their place, without our point guard. We've swept the #12 team in the country and now beaten #19. You're telling me there's 12 teams with a better resume than that?

The other thing is that the Badgers overcame what should be their final challenge of the regular season and now have the softest, fluffiest schedule of all the remaining Big Ten title contenders. MSU is now officially out of the title picture, so (as suspected) Indiana and Purdue are the other teams coming down the stretch.

The Badgers have a home date with Penn State (5-10 in conference) and close out the season with a road game at Northwestern (1-14). Purdue still has road tests at Ohio State and (to a lesser extent) Michigan, and IU's next game is on Sunday at MSU -- and the Breslin Center has been a house of horrors for the Hoosiers: they've won just once there since it opened. (That, friends, was in 1989.)

Bottom line: you have to like the Badgers' chances at an outright conference title.

Badger basketball takes on Sparta tomorrow

Wisconsin meets Michigan State for their only meeting of the year on Thursday. The game tips off at 8 pm Central at the Kohl Center and will be broadcast on ESPN2, not the Big Ten Network, so you can actually, y'know, watch it. Speaking of the BTN and MSU, head coach Tom Izzo is a bit nonplussed about the whole arrangement:

"I think it has been a PR nightmare," Izzo said Monday. "And, I think it has hurt all of us."

It has, but we're not ready to write that post again.

Over the past half-decade, the Badgers have positively owned the Spartans, sporting a 9-3 record against the guys in green and white. It's been over seven years since Wisconsin dropped a home game to MSU, despite the Spartans' relative strength during that stretch. Actually, the best summary of the Wisconsin-MSU "rivalry" (such as it is) comes from Joe Rexrode of the Lansing State Journal (link found via the excellent Spartans Weblog). Some of the better bits:

2003: For the second straight season, the teams meet once, this time in Madison. MSU needs it to stay in the Big Ten race. It's a competitive contest but Wisconsin pulls away late. With seconds remaining, sophomore Devin Harris gets a loose ball, pushes it and throws a lob to freshman Alando Tucker, who dunks right before the buzzer. Izzo is incensed as he approaches Ryan for the handshake. I can still see it clearly.
Izzo: "I'll ****ing remember that!"
Ryan (almost shrugging): "OK."
Wisconsin wins its second straight Big Ten championship. Preseason favorite MSU finishes third.

Looks like Izzo's memory hasn't done much to will the Spartans to victory over Wisconsin.

2004: This is where it really gets nasty, and painful for MSU. The Badgers rout the Spartans in Madison in the Big Ten opener, despite a 17-5 start for MSU. That drops the Spartans to 5-7 on the season. But MSU recovers from that low point, going on a tear and setting itself up to win the Big Ten. All it needs to do is beat Wisconsin at home in the regular-season finale. The famed "banner game" (because MSU had its Big Ten title banner rolled up in the rafters, and Wisconsin's coaches spotted it and used it to motivate their team) is also the best game I've ever seen Paul Davis play. He has 26 but sits the final seven minutes with painful cramps. Wisconsin comes back to tie it on a Harris 3-pointer. Chris Hill misses two free throws in the waning seconds. Wisconsin wins in overtime. No championship.

Now THAT is good stuff. Don't expect Bo to have a banner made for this Thursday's game; Indiana is still in the title hunt after downing Ohio State last night.

The Spartans are a talented but error-prone team, and unless both Drew Neitzel and Raymar Morgan get hot and stay hot with regard to their field goal percentage, I don't see a Wisconsin loss. It's impossible to predict how this game will go as the Badgers tend to win a different way every night, but hopefully we'll come out 14-2 and ready to win out during the season's final week.

Climbing the ladder: Wisconsin 58, Ohio State 53

And just like that, the Badgers sit alone atop the Big Ten. Sure, they've played one game more than Indiana and Purdue, but the numbers don't lie: while the Badgers are 13-2, the rest of the conference is playing catch-up.

It wasn't an easy victory, nor was it necessarily pretty. The Badgers coughed up a dozen turnovers during the first half and went one-for-seven from the field in the last six minutes of the game. But that one shot was an emphatic dunk courtesy of Marcus Landry with 12.7 seconds to go that put the Badgers up by five and the game on ice, and in the second half Wisconsin took care of its turnover problem, giving the ball away to the Buckeyes just twice.

Even without a true superstar on the team, the Badgers continue to find a way to win. Today, Jason Bohannon came off the bench and scored sixteen points. Brian Butch got in early foul trouble but came back with two tremendous blocks in the late going. Marcus Landry and Michael Flowers scored in the double digits. And -- most importantly -- the team played through its turnovers to keep things even at halftime and made a second-half adjustment. That was enough to win the ballgame.

Up next, what should be the last tough game before the conference tournament: a visit from the Spartans on Thursday.

Badger basketball: they could win the Big Ten again

Overall, you have to be impressed with this year's edition of the Badger hoops team: they lost superstar Alando Tucker and sharpshooter Kammron Taylor and have still managed to play their way to a top-ten ranking during the last weekend of February. Currently, they sit atop the Big Ten standings, tied with Purdue and half a game ahead of Indiana. Let's take a look at the five teams that are still in contention for the regular-season crown and show why the Badgers have a great shot at winning it all.

Wisconsin currently 12-2; remaining games are @Ohio State, Michigan State, Penn State, @Northwestern: The Badgers need to get through the Buckeyes -- a foe that has the ability to make things a little more interesting than the team would like -- and then get to host Michigan State. The Spartans haven't fared well at the Kohl Center, historically, and this year's team is faltering in Big Ten play. A home date with Penn State and a road finale at Northwestern should be a couple autowins. 4-0 to close out the season is probable; 3-1 is a worst-case scenario.

Purdue currently 12-2; remaining games are Minnesota, Northwestern, @Ohio State, @Michigan: The Boilermakers took care of business against the big boys of the conference early, and the reward for that is an end-of-season stretch against middle-of-the-pack teams and bottom feeders. They have just about the same remaining schedule as UW, and the results should be similar: 4-0 is likely, anything less than 3-1 would be a jaw-dropper.

Indiana currently 11-2; remaining games are @Northwestern, Ohio State, @Michigan State, Minnesota, @Penn State: the Kelvin Sampson fiasco has finally reached its end, and while the Hoosiers played some inspired ball for their embattled coach down the stretch, I just don't see them finishing the season strong under interim coach Dan Dakich. I'm predicting 2-3 for what could be a tentative Hoosier team -- they'll bookend a three-game losing streak with wins at Northwestern and Penn State.

Michigan State currently 9-4; remaining games are Iowa, @Wisconsin, Indiana, @Illinois, @Ohio State: you never want to count the Spartans out, even when they're trailing three teams by two full games. Head-to-head matchups with the Badgers and Hoosiers will provide an opportunity to close the gap with a couple of the top teams in the league, but this schedule is grueling. The finale could be the difference between the Big Dance and the NIT for the Buckeyes, so they'll be up and ready. The big issue for the Spartans, though, is that three games are on the road; in conference play, Tom Izzo's team is 7-0 at the Breslin Center and 2-4 on the road -- including a loss at Penn State and an absolute travashamockery of a game at Iowa in which the Spartans gave up 43 points and LOST. Look for this trend to continue; at best the Spartans finish 3-2; they'll lose at Wisconsin and at Illinois or Ohio State (or both).

Ohio State currently 8-5; remaining games are Wisconsin, @Indiana, @Minnesota, Purdue, Michigan State: the Buckeyes are still technically in the race, but it would take a lot of surprising losses by top teams to propel them to the conference title. They play each of other top-six teams in the conference one more time. Obviously, there are no gimmes on that schedule. Thad Matta's boys blew a chance to keep pace with the Spartans last weekend when they lost their "easy" game against the lowly Wolverines. If OSU winds up winning the conference title, expect the Big Ten to send a gaggle of nine-seeds to the Big Dance and none to the Sweet Sixteen.

So, as has been the story since they dropped both matchups with them this year, the Badgers will need to rely on a Purdue miscue to win them the outright conference crown. At this point, though, the Badgers are in control of their season and will grab a share of the title if they can win out.

It's funny to look at the top of the conference

As of this very minute:

Purdue #23 11-1
Wisconsin #14 10-2
Indiana #12 9-2
Michigan State #9 8-3

It's a brutal year for Big Ten basketball and it will continue to be brutal. The 2008 NCAA tournament will probably look like last year's edition, with nary a Big Ten team playing in the second weekend's matchups. Tom Izzo's Spartans look unfocused. Kelvin Sampson's lying, cheating ways will have the Hoosiers spinning out of control in no time. The Badgers have never been consistent performers in the Big Dance, and Purdue has simply played its cards well and risen to the top of a weak conference. Ohio State will probably get a bid but their 8-4 record is built upon wins over Illinois, Michigan, Northwestern, and other terrible teams. And nobody else is playing .500 basketball in the Big Ten.

The lack of excitement is palpable, and the conference's prospects have been further deflated by the fact that the Big Ten Network has made viewing the games physically impossible for most people. Maybe that's a blessing in disguise; we won't be subjected to the hideous nature of our conference's teams.

Chasing down that one-seed

The Badgers did it again yesterday, using stifling defense to hold the Illini to a season-low 41 points in the semifinals of the Big Ten tournament. So, the Big Ten tournament worked how it was supposed to; #1 Ohio State and #2 Wisconsin advance to the final, setting up a rubber match for the season series.

Obviously, a ton is at stake here; the winner will almost certainly get a one-seed for the Big Dance (although I think that Ohio State will get a one-seed regardless; people seem very high on them and their resume is strong) and will close out the season with 30 wins before the tournament even begins. The loser will fret for a couple hours, then ultimately hear their seeding, destination, and chump first-round opponent.

The Badgers' play in the tournament thus far has been encouraging. Kammron Taylor got his groove back, Alando Tucker's been a scoring machine (and he's become not only Big Ten Player of the Year, but UW's all-time leading scorer; congrats!), and Stiemsma and Krabbenhoft have filled in admirably for the injured Brian Butch. What you're watching is a team that's ready to make a tournament run. If they can go 13 minutes at a time without turning the ball over like they did against Illinois, the Badgers have a shot at going all the way. They just need to snap out of the offensive cold periods that they've experienced recently and they'll be all set.

It was nice to see the Badgers ready for Michigan State on Friday, too. After the first two games, I know most Wisconsin fans were dreading that matchup. Fortunately, Neitzel came out cold (and was remarkably well-defended by Michael Flowers), they played a sloppy, foul-and-turnover-filled game, and the Badgers didn't stoop to their level. I was once convinced that the Spartans were going to be a great sleeper pick for the NCAA Tourney, but after their struggles with Northwestern and their poor effort against the Badgers, I'm picking them to go one-and-done.

Hopefully this afternoon we'll see the Badgers come out with a fury and smoke the Buckeyes. Then we can look forward to that tense matchup with Central Connecticut State.