Badgers overcome Spartans, officiating

49 fouls. 56 free throws. Four Spartans fouling out. Three fouls called on three-point attempts (two of which actually sunk, leading to four-point plays). This is what the Big Ten puts forth when the entire nation is watching? Seriously? Ed Hightower and his gang of whistle-blowing goons ought to be ashamed. LET THEM PLAY, guys. LET THEM PLAY.

49 fouls, and though 30 went against Michigan State, the biggest of the game by far was the first whistle of the second half. That one that sent Michael Flowers to the bench just 32 seconds after intermission. After his departure, the Spartans ran their lead from 29-27 to 39-29, and it looked like it was going to be an ugly afternoon for Wisconsin. With Flowers restricted in his defensive duties, Spartan sharpshooter Drew Neitzel had a field day; the kid that Flowers shut down at the Kohl Center mere weeks ago had every opportunity to pick and choose, and he made good.

On an afternoon when the Badgers shot just 37% from the field, free throws kept them alive, and even those didn't go smoothly; Brian Butch missed four straight, the normally ultra-reliable Jason Bohannon missed both of his in the closing seconds -- shots that would've taken the margin from 2 to 4 in the last possession of the game.

Make no mistake, the Spartans were the number one contributors to their own demise. (And make no mistake: anything that brings on a good old-fashioned Tom Izzo whinefest is a good thing.) It was made clear early on that the officials were going to blow plays dead at every opportunity, and Michigan State failed to adjust their style of play. The end result: all three of their big men -- Ibok, Suton, and Naymick -- fouled out in a 56-second span in the second half, forcing MSU to match smaller players up with the likes of Brian Butch.

An unfortunate consequence of this game was the potential loss of Trevon Hughes, who's now being called a game-time decision. The Badgers shouldn't need him today, but they will absolutely require him through the NCAA tournament. He was spotted wearing a walking boot. As far as I'm concerned, it would be better for the Badgers to lose today without him than risk further injury and bow out early from the Big Dance as a result of his absence.

So now the Badgers get Illinois in the final game. The ten seed in the Big Ten Tournament, doesn't a part of you want to see the Illini win and get the auto-bid? But there's so much at stake here to root for something like that. If MSU had pulled it out yesterday, yeah, I'm cheering for the Illini all the way. It would be much better, though, to see the Badgers put two trophies in the case before the Big Dance even starts, and to cling to the dream that maybe they'll have to make room for a third.

Badgers will meet the Spartans tomorrow

The Big Ten Tournament -- which is apparently the worst ever -- rolls on, and the Badgers will get their chance to put together the State of Michigan Sweep tomorrow when they take on Michigan State. The tip is at 12:40 pm (Central time) and the game will be aired on CBS, not the Big Ten Network. I emphasize that because the BTN stole another one from the general viewing public tonight when it kept 10-seed Illinois's victory over #2 Purdue off of most cable systems. (Props to one Purdue blog for foreseeing trouble when Penn State didn't off the Illini.)

Michigan State advanced due to a rare (in 2008) virtuoso performance from Drew Neitzel. Michael Flowers is going to have to shut Neitzel down again. He'll be up to the challenge after hounding Manny Harris all day today. With any luck Brian Butch will stay true to his style of play and not come out timid after his bout of foul trouble today. Bo Ryan will have the opportunity to boost his record against Tom Izzo to a gaudy 11-3 with a victory ... and I believe he'll get it.

Final score: Wisconsin 61, Michigan State 55.

Thank you, Spartans: Big Ten now a two-horse race

Michigan State put up 59 points in the first half against Indiana and never looked back, reaching triple digits in a home win over the Hoosiers.

So now it all comes down to Wisconsin and Purdue. Penn State visits the Badgers on Wednesday, then the Badgers close out the season on the road at Northwestern. Purdue has to go on the road twice: they visit struggling Ohio State on Tuesday and Michigan on Sunday. It looks like a 2-0 finish for both teams, which would give the Boilermakers the #1 seed in the Big Ten Tournament, but those Buckeyes could surprise Purdue.

Until then, though, we salute the school whose mascot is a man in a dress: thanks again, Spartans!

Badger Hockey loses, home ice in doubt

The Badgers picked a bad time to lose their first game in fifteen tries to St. Cloud State. They lost 3-2 after being up by a goal to close out their regular season. They sit precariously in fourth place in the conference, just one point ahead of St. Cloud and Minnesota State, the latter of which came up with an overtime upset victory over Colorado College last night. Since each of the two fifth-place teams have two regular season games to go, the Badgers could conceivably fall to sixth place in the conference. If that happens, they'll find themselves on the road for the conference tournament.

However, there could be a bright spot for Badger fans this afternoon if Michigan State manages to beat Indiana and keep Purdue and Wisconsin as the only two first-place teams in the conference. Go Spartans!

Badgers-Spartans TONIGHT

What's at stake: for the Badgers, that top ten ranking and that seat at the top of the conference and a shot at a two- or three-seed for the Big Dance; for Michigan State, a quality win late in the season that could turn the Selection Committee's head, and the chance to play spoiler and take care of one of their particular bugbears of late -- winning against Wisconsin, but at the Kohl Center in particular.

Keys to the game: Wisconsin simply needs to do what it's been doing; whether they're getting half a dozen three-balls from Jason Bohannon, a key block from Brian Butch, or a grinding and consistent effort from Marcus Landry or Michael Flowers, this team has won a different way every night. Hell, even Jon Leuer might decide to score twenty. You never know. Michigan State needs to rebound aggressively on both ends of the court and take care of the ball. Wisconsin is not a mistake-prone team and isn't afraid to slow the pace of the game if they feel they're comfortably ahead or within striking distance of the lead. That doesn't usually lead to complacence, but if MSU works the backboards and takes second-chance opportunities away, the Badgers' game plan can quickly go south, especially if no shooter has the hot hand tonight.

What does a win mean? More of the same. Continued momentum into the conference tournament and the Big Dance. A shot at yet another regular season conference title. The chance to jump to a two-seed if a team like Xavier, Tennessee, or Texas were to slip up a couple times in the next few weeks.

What does a loss mean? An almost definite three- or four-seed in the Dance. A Big Ten title only comes with major shortfalls by IU and Purdue. The first signs of tarnish on Bo Ryan's record against Tom Izzo in Madison.

Prediction? Badgers 65, Spartans 55. Closer game than the final score indicates.

Badger basketball takes on Sparta tomorrow

Wisconsin meets Michigan State for their only meeting of the year on Thursday. The game tips off at 8 pm Central at the Kohl Center and will be broadcast on ESPN2, not the Big Ten Network, so you can actually, y'know, watch it. Speaking of the BTN and MSU, head coach Tom Izzo is a bit nonplussed about the whole arrangement:

"I think it has been a PR nightmare," Izzo said Monday. "And, I think it has hurt all of us."

It has, but we're not ready to write that post again.

Over the past half-decade, the Badgers have positively owned the Spartans, sporting a 9-3 record against the guys in green and white. It's been over seven years since Wisconsin dropped a home game to MSU, despite the Spartans' relative strength during that stretch. Actually, the best summary of the Wisconsin-MSU "rivalry" (such as it is) comes from Joe Rexrode of the Lansing State Journal (link found via the excellent Spartans Weblog). Some of the better bits:

2003: For the second straight season, the teams meet once, this time in Madison. MSU needs it to stay in the Big Ten race. It's a competitive contest but Wisconsin pulls away late. With seconds remaining, sophomore Devin Harris gets a loose ball, pushes it and throws a lob to freshman Alando Tucker, who dunks right before the buzzer. Izzo is incensed as he approaches Ryan for the handshake. I can still see it clearly.
Izzo: "I'll ****ing remember that!"
Ryan (almost shrugging): "OK."
Wisconsin wins its second straight Big Ten championship. Preseason favorite MSU finishes third.

Looks like Izzo's memory hasn't done much to will the Spartans to victory over Wisconsin.

2004: This is where it really gets nasty, and painful for MSU. The Badgers rout the Spartans in Madison in the Big Ten opener, despite a 17-5 start for MSU. That drops the Spartans to 5-7 on the season. But MSU recovers from that low point, going on a tear and setting itself up to win the Big Ten. All it needs to do is beat Wisconsin at home in the regular-season finale. The famed "banner game" (because MSU had its Big Ten title banner rolled up in the rafters, and Wisconsin's coaches spotted it and used it to motivate their team) is also the best game I've ever seen Paul Davis play. He has 26 but sits the final seven minutes with painful cramps. Wisconsin comes back to tie it on a Harris 3-pointer. Chris Hill misses two free throws in the waning seconds. Wisconsin wins in overtime. No championship.

Now THAT is good stuff. Don't expect Bo to have a banner made for this Thursday's game; Indiana is still in the title hunt after downing Ohio State last night.

The Spartans are a talented but error-prone team, and unless both Drew Neitzel and Raymar Morgan get hot and stay hot with regard to their field goal percentage, I don't see a Wisconsin loss. It's impossible to predict how this game will go as the Badgers tend to win a different way every night, but hopefully we'll come out 14-2 and ready to win out during the season's final week.

Badger basketball: they could win the Big Ten again

Overall, you have to be impressed with this year's edition of the Badger hoops team: they lost superstar Alando Tucker and sharpshooter Kammron Taylor and have still managed to play their way to a top-ten ranking during the last weekend of February. Currently, they sit atop the Big Ten standings, tied with Purdue and half a game ahead of Indiana. Let's take a look at the five teams that are still in contention for the regular-season crown and show why the Badgers have a great shot at winning it all.

Wisconsin currently 12-2; remaining games are @Ohio State, Michigan State, Penn State, @Northwestern: The Badgers need to get through the Buckeyes -- a foe that has the ability to make things a little more interesting than the team would like -- and then get to host Michigan State. The Spartans haven't fared well at the Kohl Center, historically, and this year's team is faltering in Big Ten play. A home date with Penn State and a road finale at Northwestern should be a couple autowins. 4-0 to close out the season is probable; 3-1 is a worst-case scenario.

Purdue currently 12-2; remaining games are Minnesota, Northwestern, @Ohio State, @Michigan: The Boilermakers took care of business against the big boys of the conference early, and the reward for that is an end-of-season stretch against middle-of-the-pack teams and bottom feeders. They have just about the same remaining schedule as UW, and the results should be similar: 4-0 is likely, anything less than 3-1 would be a jaw-dropper.

Indiana currently 11-2; remaining games are @Northwestern, Ohio State, @Michigan State, Minnesota, @Penn State: the Kelvin Sampson fiasco has finally reached its end, and while the Hoosiers played some inspired ball for their embattled coach down the stretch, I just don't see them finishing the season strong under interim coach Dan Dakich. I'm predicting 2-3 for what could be a tentative Hoosier team -- they'll bookend a three-game losing streak with wins at Northwestern and Penn State.

Michigan State currently 9-4; remaining games are Iowa, @Wisconsin, Indiana, @Illinois, @Ohio State: you never want to count the Spartans out, even when they're trailing three teams by two full games. Head-to-head matchups with the Badgers and Hoosiers will provide an opportunity to close the gap with a couple of the top teams in the league, but this schedule is grueling. The finale could be the difference between the Big Dance and the NIT for the Buckeyes, so they'll be up and ready. The big issue for the Spartans, though, is that three games are on the road; in conference play, Tom Izzo's team is 7-0 at the Breslin Center and 2-4 on the road -- including a loss at Penn State and an absolute travashamockery of a game at Iowa in which the Spartans gave up 43 points and LOST. Look for this trend to continue; at best the Spartans finish 3-2; they'll lose at Wisconsin and at Illinois or Ohio State (or both).

Ohio State currently 8-5; remaining games are Wisconsin, @Indiana, @Minnesota, Purdue, Michigan State: the Buckeyes are still technically in the race, but it would take a lot of surprising losses by top teams to propel them to the conference title. They play each of other top-six teams in the conference one more time. Obviously, there are no gimmes on that schedule. Thad Matta's boys blew a chance to keep pace with the Spartans last weekend when they lost their "easy" game against the lowly Wolverines. If OSU winds up winning the conference title, expect the Big Ten to send a gaggle of nine-seeds to the Big Dance and none to the Sweet Sixteen.

So, as has been the story since they dropped both matchups with them this year, the Badgers will need to rely on a Purdue miscue to win them the outright conference crown. At this point, though, the Badgers are in control of their season and will grab a share of the title if they can win out.

Looks like the AP voters were wrong

Brent Musberger said it first, and everyone else on the planet has repeated it by now: this Sunday's matchup between Wisconsin and Ohio State will still be a #1 versus #1 affair, since the polls don't come out till Monday. But I can say with relative confidence that the team that we saw playing the Michigan State Spartans last night has a long way to go before they can be considered the top team in the country.

First, let's look at the consequences of this loss. Obviously it gave UW a second conference loss, which means that Ohio State now has sole possession of first place in the Big Ten. It most likely got the Spartans into the NCAA Tournament, which is a bad thing since they're obviously a dangerous squad and they'll have a low seed. They might cause some chaos in those March brackets. And finally, it reduced the Badgers' claim for a #1 seed in the Big Dance (although I think it would take another loss to cost them completely).

So, why did the Badgers lose last night? There were plenty of reasons, some of which were under their control and others that were not. The spark that ignited the Spartans was Drew Neitzel, who kept the Spartans in the game during the first ten minutes by scoring 13 of Michigan State's first 15 points and who nailed clutch shots throughout the second half to keep the Badgers at bay. That's one of those things you can't control; a guy is going to get a certain number of open looks every game, and if he converts on ten of the seventeen shots that he tries, you simply can't stop that.

But one hot hand is not sufficient to derail the Badgers. And the Neitzel situation was most certainly not the biggest reason for the loss. The two things that absolutely killed the Badgers was their inability to get inside due to a pesky Spartan defense, and their propensity for taking stupid shots. Down the stretch, the typical Badger possession looked something like this:

* Get the ball
* Pass it around the perimeter until the shot clock get to about 8
* Fire off an errant triple
* Watch the Spartans get the rebound because all the Badgers are busy watching from beyond the arc

Mix in a couple uncharacteristic Alando Tucker travels for variety, and voila: the perfect recipe for a road loss to a tenacious team.

The inability to penetrate combined with the frantic three-point shooting kept the Badgers off the boards and forced them into coinflip situations; either come away with three big points, or surrender the ball after one field goal attempt.

Kammron Taylor didn't make a shot all night, which didn't help matters, but Marcus Landry came up huge. It looked like he was ready to will the team to victory, but the team wasn't ready to follow. And that's too bad.

The Ohio State game was a must-win before; now it's a really really really must-win. The Big Ten regular season title WILL be won on the floor on Sunday.

Hey Badgers -- please don't look past Michigan State!

"Could we please stop with the talk about Sunday's Wisconsin at Ohio St. game until after the Badgers play at Michigan St. tomorrow night?" asks Lance Burri of the Badger Blog Alliance, echoing a thought I had as I watched the Spartans dismantle Iowa at the Breslin Center on Saturday. And one that Bo Ryan had, too, apparently:

Well, I just talked to the AP guy, with a New York accent, so I figure he’s from out East. And I told him, he asked me, when I was told by Brian what my reaction was and everything, and I told him, my kids have this number one red foam rubber thing in the house, in the closet, and it was a party favor from New Year’s Eve, those things you blow on, it rolls out. And I tore up some newspaper and threw that in the air, blew the thing, and ran around with the No. 1 sign, and then went back to my office and saw Michigan State go up 30-some on Iowa. Slowly went to the closet, put that away, put the party favor away, cleaned up the paper and went back to work. That’s what happened. So I was pretty excited until I saw the Iowa/Michigan State game, but then, of course, I told him that’s what ran through my mind.

Uh ... OK.

After MSU's lackluster performance for 80% of the game against Michigan, I wrote the Spartans off, thinking that this just wasn't the usually-competent squad's year. And then they came alive against Iowa, taking a 44-17 lead into halftime courtesy of an 18-0 run and an unbelievable 65% shooting percentage.

There are numerous reasons for taking the Spartans seriously, both current and historic. They're one of the greatest success stories of the past decade, appearing in the Final Four in 1999, 2000, 2001, and 2005. Indeed, in odd-numbered years, Michigan State has had success; the odd year that's missing above is 2003, the year when the Spartans were bumped from the tournament after reaching the Elite Eight by the Texas Longhorns. Let's not forget that one of the wins the Spartans had en route to their national title in 2000 was over another Big Ten team that made the Final Four ... the Wisconsin Badgers.

This season, while they already have six conference losses, MSU is the only Big Ten team other than the Badgers and Ohio State that the Big Ten Wonk would consider as having a good offense AND good defense. With the crafty Drew Neitzel (who averages 18 points a game and is a 90% free throw shooter) and stellar freshman Raymar Morgan (who's scored in double figures in 15 of the 20 games he's participated in), this is a team to be reckoned with.

The storylines surrounding this visit to East Lansing don't bode well for the Badgers. Michigan State is a historically strong program with a proud tradition, and they'll be eager to help the Badgers shed that #1 ranking. They've got two games against UW in the next couple weeks. Since the Spartans are not assured a bid to the NCAA Tournament at this juncture, you'd better believe that those two games are looking like opportunities just waiting to be seized. Their coach, the wily Tom Izzo, has led teams into the fire before; he undoubtedly knows exactly the right words to use to motivate his current group of players. It's going to be a loud, intimidating environment for the visiting Badgers tomorrow.

Still, the Wisconsin players have given me no reason to believe that they won't go in to the Breslin Center and return to Madison victorious. Their focus has been superb; if they were able to get up and dominate Minnesota and Penn State last week, they'll be able to get up for the Spartans as well. They faced adversity on the road against Indiana, and now that they've been tested, they'll be prepared to enter hostile environs and succeed. Their big men, Goran Suton and Drew Naymick, aren't fit to carry the towel of Brian Butch, Greg Stiemsma, or Jason Chappell; indeed, I'd wager that any of our three bigs would start over Suton and Naymick. They have no answer for Alando Tucker, and if they try to clog up his lanes, Kammron Taylor will pick them apart instead. And -- maybe most importantly -- the Spartans are the most turnover-prone team in the Big Ten ... and the Badgers are the least turnover-prone. Turnovers will kill tomorrow night. Hopefully the trends of the year to date continue.

The Badgers have the superior talent, tons of momentum, and a coach who just might be ready to take over the title of the league's best. They go to East Lansing and they win. Maybe not by a lot, maybe not in beautiful fashion ... but they do.

One week of basketball, one good quarter

All I have to say right now is that the Penn State game was awful, and that the way the Badgers played last Wednesday would be the perfect way to ensure an exit from the NCAA tournament at the hands of a Missouri Valley or Conference USA team. Kudos to Kevin Gullikson and Michael Flowers for having big games and adding a couple bright spots to an otherwise dull game.

Probably the best thing to happen to the Badgers this week was the halftime deficit they experienced in the Iowa game on Saturday. That sparked a huge second half that featured brilliant defense and sound shooting.

I have a feeling that the games this week will feature more of the same; with the Gophers and the Nittany Lions on the slate, Badger fans can be forgiven if they fixate more on Alando Tucker's chase of Michael Finley for the all-time Badger scoring lead than the actual games themselves. I don't think the outcome of either is in doubt.

Indeed, the only game the Badgers have any business losing is that away date with Ohio State. I watched the Michigan-Michigan State debacle tonight, and the best parts of that game were when ESPN mercifully cut away to the ending of the UNC/Virginia Tech tilt. Michigan is an embarrassment to the conference yet again, that we know; but man, the Spartans are almost as awful as the Wolverines. That might be refreshing if the Badgers didn't have their number year in and year out, but as it stands UW could use some quality competition to prepare them mentally for their NCAA tournament run. What they get instead is Drew Neitzel, Raymar Morgan, and a bunch of scrubs.

It's nice to see UCLA, North Carolina, and Texas A&M laying eggs down the stretch and helping the Badgers look more and more like a lock for a one-seed, but let me tell you this: if Wisconsin loses to Tom Izzo and his crew of hacks, even on the road, they should be seeded no higher than second just on principle.

(By the way, even though the Grateful Red might indeed be the stupidest student section name in all of college basketball, at least it's not made up solely of morons. I pose the question: is there a student section that is stupider than Michigan State's Izzone? Maybe it's just because it was Michigan night in East Lansing, but I've never heard a home team booed so much. Especially in a game that they ended up winning! If you've got the first half recorded, just listen to the crowd. Wow.)

If the Spartans go 8-8 in the conference, they probably will get a bid to the Big Dance. That'll be for two reasons: Tom Izzo, and name recognition. If they make the field of 64, use ink and write their opponent into the second round.