Big Ten Bloggers: Football Prognostication

Hats off to Lake the Posts once again. This week: a potpourri of predictions. Regard:

Coach of the Year: In an utterly uncompetitive conference, Jim Tressel emerges as the only choice to pick up this award.

Most Likely To Strike Heisman Pose: the Heisman is a popularity contest based on media love, and the man who's been the recipient of a disproportionate amount of hype is James Laurinaitis of Ohio State. The Heisman people don't like to get away from quarterbacks and running backs, but this guy could break into the group of finalists with a flashy performance against USC and continued success throughout the season.

Last Year's Illini Will Be This Year's ???? (most improved): I really don't see one. Maybe Michigan State with a couple of breaks. Maybe Purdue if Curtis Painter grows a brain. But I see Ohio State, big gap, Wisconsin/Penn State, big gap, lots of other teams, big gap, Minnesota/Northwestern.

Upset game of the year (include non-conference): Probably not an upset right off the bat considering all the kinks that will need to be worked out but I could certainly see Utah over Michigan.

Name You'll Know In December That No One Knows In June: I have to stay within my own team for this one. It'll be presumptive Badger starting quarterback Allan Evridge. With competent receivers, a huge target in Travis Beckum, a stable of running backs to keep the heat off of him, and the weakest crop of Big Ten quarterbacks in memory, Evridge has a shot to make an impression right away. While he appears to be another in the unbroken line of caretaker quarterbacks in Madison, this guy is game tested -- he was the starter at Kansas State a few years back, and he competed for the starting job last year right up till the very end (though Tyler Donovan wound up winning out.)

Most Likely To John McLaren (aka lose it in postgame rant): If Rich Rodriguez beats him with all the wrong personnel, look for Mark Dantonio of Michigan State to melt down after the game. Yes, it seemed like the Spartans hired him solely as a contrast to the wackiness of John L. Smith, but listen to his comments here and tell me there's not a whole volcano of crazy bubbling up under the surface:



Highest NFL Draft Pick in 2009: Travis Beckum. This question came pre-filled in with Chris Wells (thanks for the help LTP!) and I can't disagree that he -- along with like ten other Buckeyes -- would be a great pickup, but let's face it: great tight ends are tough to find, and Beckum could be one for the ages. He runs, he catches, he blocks, and most of all he does this:



The Must See Game of the Year that is not Ohio State - Michigan: Woe be unto he who thinks that UM/OSU is a must-see this year; Tressel is going to welcome Rich Rodriguez to the Big Ten with an unprecedented pummeling. If Tressel didn't have more class in his fingernail than Woody Hayes had in his whole body, this would 1968 all over again. The talent gap isn't huge but the change in philosophy in Ann Arbor is. Beating the Buckeyes without a quarterback? I don't think so.

Anyway, the answer to that question is certainly Ohio State-USC, a game that will take place in California on Saturday, September 13. Hats off to both teams for saying "to hell with it, let's end someone's season in week three" and scheduling this amazing out of conference matchup. Ohio State has done a remarkable job of scheduling these marquee games over the past few seasons and is to be held in high esteem for doing so. USC and OSU will do battle on the field, but the real competition will happen in the clubs after the game when they use booster money to out-"make it rain" one another. (Prediction: Carroll wins!)

Big Ten Bloggers All-Conference Team: Very Disappointing

Here's your Big Ten Bloggers Preseason All-Conference Team:

1st Team All Big Ten Offense
QB - Curtis Painter, Purdue
RB - Beanie Wells, Ohio State
RB - Javon Ringer, Michigan State
WR - Brian Robiskie, Ohio State
WR - Arrelious Benn, Illinois
WR - Greg Orton, Purdue
TE/SB - Travis Beckum, Wisconsin
OT - Alex Boone, Ohio State
OG - Steve Rehring, Michigan
C - AQ Shipley, Penn State
OG - Kraig Urbik, Wisconsin
OT - Eric Vanden Heuvel, Wisconsin

1st Team All-Big Ten Defense
DE- Greg Middleton, Indiana
DE - Maurice Evans, Penn State
DT - Terrance Taylor, Michigan
DT - Mitch King, Iowa
LB - James Laurinaitis, Ohio State
LB - Marcus Freeman, Ohio State
LB - Anthony Heygood, Purdue
S - Anthony Scirrotto, Penn State
S - Anderson Russell, Ohio State
CB - Malcolm Jenkins, Ohio State
CB - Vontae Davis, Illinois

K - Austin Starr, Indiana
PR - Marcus Thigpen, Indiana
P - Jeremy Boone, Penn State

Look familiar? It should, if you've read Phil Steele. Here are the positions at which the Big Ten Bloggers differ from Mr. Steele: one of two offensive tackles and punt returner. We really blazed a courageous new trail there, didn't we? Differing on two positions that are tough to gauge with an expert eye let alone as the amateurs we are points to one of two things: (a) we're really damn uncreative or (b) this is going to be one predictable, boring year for the Big Ten.

I know I haven't posted for some time, and I know that a good number of my picks coincide with Phil's as well. I'm not singling anybody out here, I'm criticizing the group as a whole: when the inevitable bloggers-versus-MSM thing arises, it's stuff like this that gets pointed out -- that the bloggers are recyclers, rehashers ... even plagiarists. We need to offer something new.

And it's entirely possible that we have. Maybe, like the BlogPoll, the sum total of these picks winds up looking like the same thing the MSM churns out, but it arises from a wonderful array of differences in opinion. Not many invididual ballots have been posted yet, so it's impossible to say at the moment. But do keep in mind, bloggers, that our niche is the original, the minute. We sate the cravings of those who want to know more. More than USA Today, more than your local sports section, sometimes even more than your own athletic department is giving away. Giving away what Steele gave away weeks ago won't cut it.

2008 Big Ten Football Preseason All-Conference Team

It's a Northwestern football fan's favorite time of year -- the preseason, when they haven't yet been torched by Duke and spirits aren't quite at Carrie Nation-era lows in Evanston (har!) As such, Lake the Posts is going full throttle and has tasked the Big Ten Bloggers to come up with their picks for preseason all-conference teams. Here are mine (I didn't pick special teams because that's really out of my realm):

2008 Big Ten College Football Preseason All-Conference Selections

Offense:

Quarterback: Todd Boeckman, Ohio State
Running back: Beanie Wells, Ohio State
Running back: PJ Hill, Wisconsin
Receiver: Brian Hartline, Ohio State
Receiver: Greg Mathews, Michigan
Receiver: Arrelious Benn, Illinois
Tight End: Travis Beckum, Wisconsin
Center: AQ Shipley, Penn State
Guard: Kraig Urbik, Wisconsin
Guard: Steve Rehring, Ohio State
Tackle: Alex Boone, Ohio State
Tackle: Gabe Carimi, Wisconsin

Easiest picks: The easiest pick here was Beckum. It's still a mystery to me why he's back in Madison this year; did the draft analysts really believe he would fall past the first round? Maybe if Beckum builds up sufficient hype he could be a top-five kind of guy this year. Beyond that, Wells was a no-brainer and Shipley, Urbik, and Boone are coming off of all-conference seasons.

Toughest picks: I didn't have solid answers for the receiving corps. Arrelious Benn was the Big Ten Freshman of the Year last year despite having Juice Williams throwing to him and playing on a team that had Rashard Mendenhall eating up touches. He could absolutely blow up this year. Greg Mathews looks ready to continue the unbroken line of astounding Michigan receivers (how far back can YOU go? Manningham, Avant, Edwards, Walker, Terrell ...), leaving room for only one pick between Ohio State's duo of Robiskie and Hartline. Also, this appears to be very much a down year at the quarterback position the Big Ten. A lot of people are probably going to wind up picking Curtis Painter as their first-teamer, but I just can't put my faith in a guy who routinely leads his team to late-season meltdowns. Since the other names up for consideration are Juice Williams, Kellen Lewis, and CJ Bacher, I went with Boeckman, a man whose job won't even be secure if Terrelle Pryor lives up to the hype immediately. People might also take issue with PJ Hill, especially since UW has four proven running backs returning this year, but the (presumably) popular pick of Javon Ringer smells distinctly of tokenism to me.

Defense:

End: Maurice Evans, Penn State
End: Greg Middleton, Indiana
Tackle: Terrence Taylor, Michigan
Tackle: Mitch King, Iowa
Linebacker: Jonathon Casillas, Wisconsin
Linebacker: James Laurinaitis, Ohio State
Linebacker: Marcus Freeman, Ohio State
Linebacker: Martez Wilson, Illinois
Cornerback: Malcom Jenkins, Ohio State
Cornerback: Donovan Warren, Michigan
Safety: Anthony Scirrotto, Penn State
Safety: Stevie Brown, Michigan

Easiest picks: Laurinaitis, of course. And the entire defensive line: three first-team all-conference picks return, and the guy who wasn't first team, Taylor, was a second-teamer. Those are big dudes who want to devour you.

Toughest picks: I engaged in a little homerism putting the mildly-inconsistent-but-improving Casillas on my list. I'm not sure there's a consensus #2 cornerback in the conference so I think I'm sticking my neck out a little bit by tapping Donovan Warren. Indeed, it seems like almost all of the talent among the deep men has departed the Big Ten, as I was positively scrambling to choose safeties. Could be a big year for airing the ball out in the Big Ten with inexperienced secondaries appearing to be the rule.

Terse answers to Big Ten Roundtable questions

Thanks to OMGTINNOMJLOL for hosting ...

1. Clearly, Week 1 was a huge week for upsets with Appalachian St. beating Michigan and Clemson beating FSU (though if that really shocked anyone I'd be surprised). What are your upset games for Week 2 and why?

Yeah, Michigan got pantsed. I mean, Appalachian State? I'm more upset than joyful at this loss; that's at least 24 months of "the Big Ten is weak!" fodder for the talking heads. Check that; they would've been saying all that anyway, but now they have an earth-shattering fiasco to point at and say, "that's proof, baby." Even Northwestern beat that I-AA opponent, Wolverines. Nice going.

A great thing to come from last week: now it's OK to pick Minnesota and Michigan to lose every week. Prove us wrong, ladies!

Upsets ... well, I'd pick Miami over the Gophers, but I'm not sure that counts as an upset per se. I really don't see any other Big Ten team losing, except probably Michigan because they have a legitimate opponent. (And, oh yeah, they lost to Appalachian State.)

Nationally, let's talk about South Carolina over Georgia. The Dawgs smothered what was supposed to be a reasonably decent Oklahoma State team and may be puffed up enough to believe they can pull a Michigan and go to sleep on unranked South Carolina. But you can't pull that against the Ol' Ball Coach! If Georgia wins, it's because they wake up in the second half and put some effort into beating the Gamecocks. (Sorry, no abbreviation there; I don't want to arouse people's prurient interests.)

I think South Florida is a program on the rise. At the very least they'll give Auburn a scare this weekend.

BYU over UCLA? If anyone can lose that game (besides Lloyd Carr, Joe Paterno, or Bobby Bowden) it's Karl Dorrell.

What an odd world we live in when Washington over Boise State is considered an upset. While the the Hoosier Report doesn't give Ty Willingham much credit, let's face it -- thus far, his career indicates he's more of a football genius than is Charlie Weis. I want to see Willingham succeed and the Irish regret their personnel moves. Call it wishful thinking, but I'm picking the Huskies.

2. What do you think about the BTN? How'd it look? How were the announcers? Did the first weekend change your opinion of the BTN?

I think it screwed me out of watching the biggest, most embarrassing upset in college football history live. I didn't see it, I won't see it, I don't like it.

3. Now that we're a game into the Season evaluate the Big Ten's strength.

Here's what we know:

A. Minnesota and Michigan will both have long seasons. Minnesota, duh. Michigan can still wake up and outscore their offense and maybe pull out nine wins. Their lack of defense will cost them dearly against Wisconsin, Penn State, and Ohio State.
B. Wisconsin is better than you thought. 42 points? More than I thought I'd see.
C. We don't know anything about anyone else. They all took care of business, as they were supposed to. We know they're not chokers, but we don't know if they're any good. Michigan State looked serviceable on defense and impressive on offense. Illinois is bad, but not losing-to-the-MAC-or-IAA bad. Everyone else? Who knows?

Wisconsin Badgers Football 2007 Preview: the Offense

Your starting quarterback: Tyler Donovan. A redshirt senior from Hartland, Donovan has one year to be the guy for the Badgers. A backup to John Stocco, Donovan was called into service at the end of the 2006 season, starting the Badgers' wins against Iowa and Buffalo. He performed admirably, finishing the season with a passer rating of 161.34 while completing 63% of his passes, but again: we're talking Iowa and Buffalo. He gives the Badgers decidedly more mobility than Stocco had but at the cost of arm strength. The real question is whether he's mentally prepared for a starting role.

Backing him up: Allan Evridge. Evridge was a nice surprise for the Badgers, transferring from Kansas State after the dismissal of Bill Snyder in 2005. After sitting out the 2006 season, Evridge was expected to compete for the starting role with Donovan, but Coach Bielema indicated very early on in fall camp that Donovan was destined to start. I speculated that Evridge might be a more attractive choice at starter due to his additional remaining year of eligibility, but Bret Bielema knows that the future doesn't matter if you're not winning today. It's Donovan's job to lose, but if he's shaky, Evridge might be able to seize the starting role with a strong performance if Donovan gets the hook. He did, after all, make numerous starts as a Kansas State Wildcat.

Backing up the backup: Redshirt junior Dustin Sherer is absolutely the third-string quarterback. Redshirt freshman Scott Tolzien was a Rivals two-star recruit and will almost definitely not play. Incoming freshmen Cody Rose and James Stallons will redshirt.

Your starting tailback: P. J. Hill. Hill, the Wisconsin Winnebago, led the Big Ten in rushing as a redshirt freshman last season. He averaged 5 yards per carry, pounded out 1569 yards, and plowed into the end zone 15 times. He also displayed competence as a receiver, catching 18 passes for 197 yards and a score. Bielema intends to make use of Hill's pass-catching ability this year (detailed in this article, once you get past the embarrassing parts about stripping naked and wearing plastic bags) and touts his breakaway speed. When Hill gets free, he's tough to stop; p=mv, y'all. His numbers last season can't be denied, even though at one point Coach Bielema requested that his star back pop a few "toughen-up pills" and he did end the season on a disturbing note, gaining just 36 yards on 19 carries in the Capital One Bowl against Arkansas.

Backing him up: Lance Smith, Zach Brown, and John Clay. Second-stringer Smith is back with the team after an incident that began with an argument over $10 and ended with a call to police and some shoe-stealing. He's got experience at the collegiate level, having seen action in twelve games last year, but he didn't do all that much; when Hill was injured against Illinois, Smith ran for 46 yards on (ugh) 21 carries. Through camp, Bielema made it known that Smith's shortcomings are with mentality and maturity; physically, he's doing fine.

Zach Brown is a freshman who established himself as the third-string back at camp. This may or may not have changed when star recruit John Clay became academically eligible. The word appears to be that Clay is still not in football shape (he did miss a lot of practice) so it appears the order will be Hill-Smith-Brown-Clay, but that is subject change. Regardless, expect a big year from the running backs again; with a new quarterback, the ground game is going to have to be top notch.

Your starting fullback: Chris Pressley. Pressley jumped over the very capable Bill Rentmeester in the depth chart this fall. He sat out last year with a leg injury, shed about twenty pounds, and is back to do to unto others as he does unto weights: he shall squat them, 770 pounds at a time. Pressley took a trip to China over the summer -- he's one of those bright kids who isn't just here to play football, wishing instead to embrace the academic experience as a whole. No word yet on whether he managed to hone his Shaolin shadowboxing whilst overseas.


Shaolin shadowboxing and the Wu-Tang sword style. If what you say is true, the Wu-Tang could be dangerous!

Backing him up: Bill Rentmeester. It was about 53 weeks ago to the day that Bill Rentmeester found out he would be taking over as the Badgers' starting fullback. A redshirt junior majoring in biology (what is it with our fullbacks being polymaths?), Rentmeester played in every game last year. Oddly, he was never asked to carry the ball, but he did become the first Badger fullback in six years to catch a touchdown pass (this against Bowling Green). It's tough to compete with a freak like Pressley, but Rentmeester is one of those guys that you can't help but like. He's likely to continue to contribute on special teams this season.

Your starting wide receivers: Luke Swan and Paul Hubbard. Both guys are fifth-year seniors who didn't see much action until last season, but they became game-tested in a real hurry. Their numbers are incredibly similar; Swan caught 35 balls for 595 yards and 5 scores, while Hubbard pulled in 38 for 627 and 5. Swan's got the hands, and Hubbard -- a champion long-jumper -- has the agility. These guys aren't virtuosos or anything, and they probably won't be able to clean up most of the mistakes that Donovan might make. But they're solid, experienced players, and they'll be consistent deep threats.

Backing them up: Xavier Harris and Kyle Jefferson. Harris, a sophomore from Fort Lauderdale, was a frequently-deployed third wideout who rarely saw a ball come his way. That figures to change this year. Jefferson appears to be the guy voted Most Likely To Possibly Approach Chambers/Evans; he's big and fast, and hopefully his mind and his hands will be ready for the college game. A stable of lesser receivers, including Lance Kendricks, David Gilreath, Isaac Anderson, and possibly Marcus Randle El, will back up the other four receivers. Daven Jones, who wasn't able to make it to campus last year, is now on the squad but has a lot of people to jump before he sees the field.

Your starting tight end: Travis Beckum. Volumes and volumes have already been written on Beckum. You don't need me to tell you very much about #9. Recruited as the #6 linebacker in the nation out of high school, Beckum spent his freshman year stagnating as a defensive backup. He was plugged in at TE right from the get-go in 2006 and finished the year as the Badgers' leading receiver. He's been named to several preseason first-team All-America lists and, if his run-blocking improves this season, could be making big money in the NFL at this time next year. He's going to be double-covered all year long.

Backing him up: Andy Crooks. Few teams have the luxury of having a second-string tight end who has played in 38 games and made 19 starts. The University of Wisconsin does. Crooks is a converted linebacker and, like Beckum, has lined up at fullback as well. Opponents will live in fear of the Badgers' jumbo package this year.

Your starting offensive line will feature four returnees: Eric VandenHeuvel at right tackle, Kraig Urbik at right guard, Marcus Coleman at center, and Andy Kemp at left guard. Of course, the missing guy is Joe Thomas, who is currently driving an all-gold Rolls Royce somewhere in the vicinity of Lake Erie. Redshirt freshman and local product Gabe Carimi (Monona Grove) steps in as the Last Best Hope on Donovan's blind side. (Side note: Allan Evridge is left-handed, so if Donovan gets bounced, he'll have a more experienced lineman protecting his blind side.) Mgoblog has pointed out a discrepancy between the line's ability to create holes for Hill (good) and the fact that John Stocco seemed to taste a lot of Fieldturf last year (bad). My prediction: experience will allow this line to gel quickly, and their increased capability combined with Donovan's non-statuesque style of quarterbackery will lead to sexy results.

All in all, the offense looks promising, but will ultimately come down to Donovan's readiness. Hill won't regress, but if Donovan can't keep defenses off-balance by moving the ball through the air, that won't matter in the least. Fortunately, an experienced receiving corps and an offensive line packed with upperclassmen are there to help the QB out when the punishing convoy of Hill and Pressley turn their CB radios off for a play.

***

And now, a word from our sponsor: That's all the information you need to make your football picks, and that concludes my college football preview for the Badger offense.

Big Ten Network is coming to UW-Madison

In the dorms, that is ...

Students in University of Wisconsin-Madison residence halls will be able to watch the Big Ten Network, under an agreement between the university and the network.

In addition, the Big Ten Network will be available at the Memorial Union and Union South, as well as the J.F. Friedrick Center, the Fluno Center and Lowell Hall.

The Big Ten Network will be offered on channel 116 of the university's ResNet cable system beginning on about Sept. 1.

Presumably, if the game is low-profile enough to merit airing on the BTN, you can watch on campus ... although in many cases I'd guess you could find a ticket on the street for $10 or less and just watch from the stands in Camp Randall Stadium. Still, those road games at Illinois and Minnesota? Might have to head to the Union to see them ...

Hope for the Big Ten Network in Wisconsin?

Mgoblog (which provides about half the information for my blog, it seems) links to a very helpful article in the University of Michigan's student newspaper, which gives the impression that many Wisconsin residents will be able to see the Big Ten Network without switching services:

In the next few weeks, Silverman thinks the network will sign with several cable and satellite distributors - Time Warner, Dish Network and Charter - but he won't count on Comcast.

"I need to consider Comcast as hoping, not expecting," Silverman said. "I will know more in the next couple of weeks about Comcast. That will be one that will go very close to the launching."

Since Milwaukee is home to many Time-Warner subscribers, and my very own Madison apartment is hooked up with Charter, I consider this extremely good news. That we're getting closer to a deal is remarkable. With any luck it'll be in place by the first of September. My fingers are crossed.

Daven Jones in, John Clay still out

Daven Jones, who had a bit of trouble qualifying academically last year, has apparently sorted out his issues in the classroom and practiced with the team yesterday. (Also, memo to the July 2006 version of Badger Tracker: Swan and Hubbard turned out to be fairly decent receivers, and that PJ Hill guy did OK too.) There's no such thing as too much depth, and if Jones still possesses the attributes that roused the interest of several D-IA programs a couple falls ago, he'll be an exciting addition to a group that already boasts a track star. Tip of the cap to Mr. Jones for climbing that mountain.

John Clay, though, is another story. He's waiting for summer school grades to come in, and even if those the news is good he may have to sit out the first game; NCAA rules forbid him from joining the team till the first day of classes, September 4, unless a player on the Badgers' 105-man roster voluntarily abdicates his spot or gets injured. We'll see about John.

Also of note, we have a tweak of the depth chart: Jamal Cooper is taking over at right tackle for Kurt Ware as the latter recovers from knee surgery. Also, Shane Carter looked sharp according to both the Journal-Sentinel and the State Journal, so that's a big positive

A college football moment of zen

This is why college football is the greatest sport. To all of our Buckeye friends, we salute you.

Big Ten Bloggers Roundtable I - Wrapup

On Monday, I came up with a few questions for our cadre of Big Ten bloggers to answer, timing them in conjunction with the Big Ten media days. If you read these guys frequently, you know by now that they didn't disappoint.

Pick your surprise team for the Big Ten this year. If your team's year is "surprising," is that a good thing or a bad thing?

Answers were all over the board, with bloggers pegging Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin, and even Minnesota(!) for better-than-expected seasons. Those who chose to focus on teams that would finish in disappointing fashion seemed to go with Ohio State. Additionally, with bloggers representing Northwestern, Indiana, and the Minnesota Gophers, it should not be a big shock that most fans thought that a "surprising" season for their team meant a very good season indeed. Even the Penn State fans thought that "surprising" meant good. Leave it to the guys from Happy Valley to be dissatisfied with the media dubbing their team a consensus top-four pick in the conference.

Which player/unit on your team needs to put forth a "player of the year" effort for your team to contend for a title?

Lots of quarterbacks on the list, obviously, but also a few actual interesting answers. According to Hawkeye State:

The defensive line will make or break Iowa in 2007. Norm Parker's one-play playbook is predicated on the pass rush, especially with a thoroughly mediocre secondary. When we have it (Matt Roth, Aaron Kampman, etc.), we win. When we don't, we lose. It's been that simple for 7 years. With Mattison and Iwebema on the ends, and the enigmatic Mitch King in the middle, they certainly have the capability of doing just that.

Representing Michigan, Maize n Brew also focuses on defense:

Safety Jamar Adams. Adams was burnt crispy by both Ohio State and USC. Bad angles. Bad reads. He and Willis Barringer looked horrible at the end of last year. Safety is as important a position on defense as you can get. A screwup on zone coverage and all of a sudden your corner gets posterized. As a result, Hall and Trent looked pretty bad at times when the fault was not their own.

If Michigan is a serious national title contender Adams will have to be Michigan’s rock in the defensive backfield. He'll have to improve is reading of the field and balls in the air. He's definitely got the talent. He just needs to harness it. Look for Stevie Brown to make an impact as Safety soon as well.

Lots of focus on the running back as well. Buckeyes in particular are singling out their RB as the guy who must step up. As Eleven Warriors explains, "A lot of talk is around the quarterback position, but this coach won a national championship with Craig-Freakin-Krenzel." Point taken. (My opinion? OSU will be fine. "Beanie Wells" is one of those names that, just by its very sound, seems destined to go down in Big Ten history. You don't come this far with the name "Beanie" to be forgotten.)

Whose out-of-conference schedule appeals to you?

Hoosiers and Illini have all the bomb frostings

Responses came in two varieties: the "give me 4-0 guaranteed" crew cited Illinois and Indiana for cupcakishness in the first degree, whereas the "give me some football I actually want to watch" contingent generally grumbled about scheduling and then picked Michigan. Gopher Nation joined me in lauding Michigan State's schedule, and a couple Ohio State bloggers singled out Wisconsin, noting that while a road game against UNLV may not make for compelling football, at least it's a hell of a destination.

Pick the Big Ten's biggest upset!
Looks like a lot of people went with the tried and true formula:

1. See who everyone's picking as the weakest of the "strong teams"
2. Check out that team's schedule
3. Pick one of the "pretty bad" teams to beat that team
   
4. Justify with a cliche like "momentum" or "trap"

Penn State, you are officially on notice! So are the Badgers. Our respondents see Illinois, Indiana, Michigan State, and Purdue as potentially upsetting the Nittany Lions. That would be one hell of an ugly season. Three people said Indiana over PSU, making that the most popular pick ... tied with Minnesota over Wisconsin. Citing the big Michigan game the week before and a date at the Metrodome, people see a stumble for the Badgers. Fine with me; we don't mind heading to the Twin Cities, because things like this happen there:


Other upsets: Gophers beat Wolverines (in Ann Arbor!); four picks from Run Up the Score include Indiana over Iowa, Northwestern over Michigan, and Michigan State over Ohio State; Minnesota over Ohio State; Penn State over Michigan; Michigan State over Michigan; and Illinois over the Badgers.

Now it's time to hand out some awards. The last two questions were basically throwaways, with bloggers being required to say nice things about certain conference foes and mean things about others.

The Damning with Faint Praise Award goes to Hawkeye State, whose assignment was to say something nice about Indiana. Quoth the Hawkeye:

Indiana gave us Myles Brand, who is known far and wide as a scholar and a gentleman. His visionary leadership gave us the NCAA you know today.

Note to Hoosiers: ouch.

The Acknowledgment of a Cold, Brutal Reality Award is handed to Around the Oval, who recognizes the following about the rest of us as compared to Northwestern alumni:

It's all right, it's okay, we'll all be pumping their gas someday.

The I Haven't Been Paying Attention Since 2001 Award recipient is Lake the Posts. After a long tirade about classless, academically-deficient Ohio State fans, we get this:

Have fun complaining this year with your 50+ days off - you'll have plenty of time to gripe about how you got jobbed by the refs after getting smoked by Michigan.

Note to LtP: John Cooper is essentially a grease stain on the driveway of Ohio State and has been for better than half a decade.

The Man Award is destined, clearly, for the Hoosier Report, who questions Iowa's technique:

There's something profoundly insecure about a program that has to paint the visiting locker room pink.

And now on to the most important awards a blogger can receive. The Crown Their Asses award goes to Maize n Brew for their recognition of the USC Trojans as, in the words of Michigan's favorite alumnus Jim Harbaugh, "the greatest team in the history of college football."

After an exceedingly humbling throttling at the hands of USC, as a Michigan fan I must say greatest football team in the history of the multi-verse. When Pete Carroll is done saving starving orphans in China he dabbles in time travel and dimension swapping in an attempt to bring the finest humanitarian talent to Southern California.

Please note that for the purposes of the Trojans, college football started in 2001.

And finally the SOUTHERN SPEED Award goes to Around the Oval, whose profound statements help you think the Proper Thoughts about the SEC:

As for SEC speed, I understand that SEC players are so fast that when they get out of bed to shut off the light, they get to the switch only to discover they'd already beaten themselves to it. Then they are so fast that they can get back in bed before their past selves can even turn off the lights. The space-time continuum means nothing when southern speed is involved.

His thoughts on USC also make me want to subscribe to his newsletter; after awarding Southern Cal the national title at the beginning of the season, "we could just spend Saturdays watching Shelley Smith report on Pete Carroll and the Trojans having fun and being awesome."

Thanks to everyone who participated, great answers!

Big Ten Expansion, Part One: Cash Rules Everything Around Me

Part one of a three-part series. Parts two and three will be linked here once I, you know, write them.

During the long, long offseason from college football, fans on message boards around the world occasionally fend off boredom by contemplating the very nature of their conference. For Big Ten fans, this means addressing the number eleven.

Eleven means that expanding the conference slate from eight to nine games is impossible. 11 participants times 9 games equals 99 slots to be filled, which means someone gets a bye -- and that team will be making ten other teams mighty unhappy, even if it's Minnesota, which isn't going to compete for the conference title even with a free win. So unless the conference members agree to a true round robin and decide to eat up 10 games of an 11- or 12-game schedule with the same familiar foes year after year, the Big Ten will always contend with the ugly eight-game schedule, which ensures that every team will not play two conference teams in a given year.

Some people talk about contraction. Some people are fools. On the surface, booting a team from the conference makes sense; after all, this is the Big Ten, and eleven minus one is ... heyyy! But who would go? If the current marketplace still wishes to offer the illusion of tradition, the charter members of the conference -- Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, Northwestern, Purdue, and Wisconsin -- would retain their seats. Iowa and Indiana have been members for over a century, and in five short years Ohio State will reach that same milestone. Michigan State joined the conference in 1950; with nearly six decades of membership, as well as multiple titles in football and basketball, the Spartans have certainly earned their place. And Penn State? Are you crazy? Penn State has the kind of tradition and prowess that moves a conference as stalwart as the Big Ten to consider such radical things as expansion. It's clear, then, that forced contraction is nonsense. If the makeup of the conference needs to change, it must be by the voluntary withdrawal of one or more schools -- not likely -- or by expansion.

Why is expansion in the news? Because of this:

The creation of the Big Ten Network means conference officials likely will discuss expansion again, commissioner Jim Delany said Wednesday.

"I think we need to look at it in the next year," he said during a wide-ranging interview with Des Moines Register reporters.

Adding a 12th team likely will be revisited because of the network, which is scheduled to launch Aug. 30, Delany said. An additional big-name university in a large television market means more exposure for the network and its sponsors.

That says it all. We're thinking expansion for financial reasons. We have a TV network now so that we can make more money. The network has sponsors who want to make more money. A twelfth school could be added to increase the market for our TV station and line the pockets of our sponsors who, incidentally, would give more money to a twelve-team conference than to an eleven-team conference. And round and round we go.

Why are we thinking about expansion? Is it because the conference faces a problem with eleven teams that would evaporate with twelve? No. Filthy lucre is the one and only reason. A twelfth team gets you the boon of a conference championship game. The Big XII has one -- Dr. Pepper pays good money to attach its (his?) name to that game. Plus it's another night to cash in with the network and the other advertisers. You get to pick a site (and sporting arenas and chambers of commerce would be willing to grease the wheels a bit to get your conference title game to their city, wouldn't they?). You get to sell tickets! You get to dub a Clear Victor! And you don't even have to try -- people will tune in! Fans will attend! Sponsors will cut checks! It's the same as it ever was -- and MORE!

The Big Ten has managed, one way or another, to tolerate co-champions when it needs to. There's a certain amount of grousing when people examine the conference schedules and see that, somehow, Purdue has managed to miss Michigan and Ohio State for the sixth year in a row. But then the season starts and the games begin and at the end of the year, one team's 8-0, or two teams are 7-1, or it's 1990 and four teams wind up at 6-2. And there are always the shoulda-woulda moments ("We shoulda played Ohio State last year, we woulda beat 'em and gone to the BCS where we belonged!") but nobody gets too worked up about them.

If a pressing need exists, or a worthy candidate expresses interest in joining, expanding the Big Ten is a fine idea. But when the motivation for seeking out a twelfth team is less about strengthening our academic and athletic relationships and more like selecting the most lucrative location for a new Starbucks or Walgreen's, it becomes a very unwholesome proposition indeed.

Media picks Wolverines #1, Badgers #2

Reported by Jeff Potrykus.

Absolutely no surprise there. Ohio State is picked to finish third.

It looks as if Dave Heller will be updating live from Chicago all day, so it might be worth checking in a few times before you head home from work.

Big Ten Bloggers - an opening salvo

A consortium of bloggers -- Penn State's Black Shoe Diaries, Michigan's Maize-n-Brew, and THE Ohio State's Around the Oval decided that the Big Ten's finest bloggers (if "finest" is defined as "everyone who bothered to reply to a particular mass email") needed a group that was founded for the express purpose of promoting intraconference discourse and interblog flamethrowing. That is to say, this network of bloggers will make it far easier to show one another our Pokemans.



There's been some discussion of coming together on common topics in conjunction with the Big Ten football meetings to which, as far as I know, none of us have obtained access. In the spirit of outright audacity, I have picked myself(!) to lead open the discussion with this august group of blogmeisters, and with any luck people will find the questions I asked interesting enough to warrant a response. Look for a roundtable wrap-up post on this blog in the coming days!

On to the questions:

1a. The press and the coaches will be predicting the Big Ten champ at the Hyatt Regency in Chicago on Wednesday. That's fine, but overdone. In lieu of boilerplate predictions of who will come out on top, which Big Ten team will be the most surprising? Remember, surprises can be good or bad; the underdog who comes out of nowhere to share the title is just as surprising as the favorite who winds up with five losses and no bowl bid.

I'd look for Indiana to be your surprise team this year, although that's largely by the process of elimination. I would be genuinely shocked if the top four in the conference wasn't made up of Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Penn State. Out of the remaining teams, you have Minnesota and Michigan State in shambles and with first-year coaches. You've got the Zookster at Illinois with his stable of decent recruits and absolute vacuum of coaching prowess. Then there are Iowa and Purdue, sometimes-contenders whose gameplans have both been figured out by the rest of the conference. Iowa might make some noise if Drew Tate's replacement shines, but the general feeling appears to be that this is a "rebuilding year." As for Northwestern, they will certainly annoy one legitimate contender and remain irrelevant the rest of the way.

So I pick Indiana. Lewis and Hardy are a remarkable tandem, and if other threats emerge in the IU offense, they just might be able to mitigate the damage that opponents will wreak upon their awful defense. And of course the Hoosiers will have an emotional edge, having just lost Terry Hoeppner. I think IU has a chance to be the fifth-place team in the Big Ten this year -- that's the upper half, people.

1b. Imagine it's December, and the consensus in the media is that your team's season was "surprising." Is this a Good Thing or a Bad Thing? What would have to happen for you to consider your team's season surprising?

Almost definitely a bad thing, unless you're part of the fanbase that has persisted in whining about "no respect!" for the past decade. In a worst case scenario, both Tyler Donovan and Allan Evridge turn out to be interception machines and/or headcases, new left tackle Jake Bscherer allows rushing defenders to flatten the aforementioned QB, Jack Ikegwuonu is made to stay off the field for his XBox harvesting mission in DeKalb, and the team generally suffers a meltdown. Maybe Washington State upsets the Badgers and the road trips to State College and Columbus become nightmares. We wind up with 6 losses and are shamed in the Motor City Bowl by some MAC team. The surprising 2007 Wisconsin Badgers are bad Wisconsin Badgers indeed.

2. A preseason player of the year will also be dubbed in Chicago. For your team to succeed, which player or unit is going to have to put forth a "player of the year" performance? What's the one position that would take your team to the next level if it performs above expectations?

With nine returning starters on offense and seven returning starters on defense, the Badgers aren't in a bad position at all. And of course, fretting over the quarterback is a logical and all-too-simple thing to do. So I'm going to go with the second-most-obvious position to worry about: safety. Roderick Rogers and Joe Stellmacher were above average safeties, meriting a second team all-conference award and an honorable mention, respectively, and each played important roles in giving the Wisconsin defense teeth last year, notably Rogers with his interception to kill Penn State's momentum in the first half of last year's game. Aubrey Pleasant and Shane Carter have both shown promise but need to be lights out right from the get-go for the Badgers to have a shot at containing teams that like to throw the ball.

3. Which Big Ten team's out-of-conference schedule would you most want to have this year? Why? Do you think your team will have out-of-conference losses this year?

I want Iowa's OOC schedule. They've got a neutral-site game against Northern Illinois at Soldier Field, a game at Iowa State, and home dates against Western Michigan and Syracuse. Two MAC teams and two major conference basement-dwellers is a fine if unexciting OOC schedule.

Michigan State has scheduled well too, with home games against UAB, Bowling Green, and Pittsburgh preceding a road date with Notre Dame. Everyone else has been digging in the I-AA cookie jar, which is simply unappealing. I still can't believe I'm paying actual US currency to see the Citadel.

4. Here's a chance to look like a complete genius in a few months: pick the biggest in-conference upset that will happen this season. Justify your prediction!

I don't have the heart to pick Michigan State over Michigan even though it's a classic trap game (a road date for the Wolverines the week before @Wisconsin and then Ohio State.) So I'm going to pull one straight out of my be-hind and pick another matchup from that same date. A bruised but exuberant Penn State team is coming off a very hard-fought victory over the Ohio State Buckeyes and, with one last home game before visits to Temple and Michigan State, the Nittany Lions plan to coast to Big Ten glory. Pass-happy Purdue comes to Happy Valley and catches the Penn State secondary napping in the first quarter, and an Anthony Morelli interception and another quick strike puts the Boilermakers up 21-0. The Lions wake up and play three solid quarters after that, but they never make up the ground they gave away early on, and Joe Tiller's team wins by six or less.

5. Say something nice about the Big Ten school whose name precedes yours alphabetically. Say something mean about the one that comes after.

The Purdue Boilermakers run one heck of an engineering school. Their bell tower is cool looking. They were a real pleasure to watch during the Drew Brees era, and I like the World's Biggest Drum a lot. Also, their head coach looks like the kind of guy who can really appreciate a nice bukket.

As for Indiana, it is a loser school for losers. It employed Bob Knight, one of the most classless individuals to ever be hallowed by a collegiate basketball program. (And don't give me any of this "Oh, he graduated so many of his students!" I care a little, but that doesn't forgive the tantrums or the fact that ESPN wasted my time with "A Season on the Brink.") Also, Indiana broke everyone's heart when they beat the Badgers 63-32 in 2001. Screw you, Randle-El!

edit: D'oh!!!! How dumb am I? Dumber than a loser attending a loser school majoring in loserese. So intent was I on drubbing Randle-El that I failed to acknowledge the existence of Illinois. Augh!

Just for that, Illinois is, of course, the sworn enemy of Wisconsin. The states are enemies, anyway. Illinois is full of cheap bastards who charge you to drive on their roads, then bring their H2 Hummers up I-39 to go to "the lake" and generally be obnoxious. The schools are big-time rivals too, academically, being near equals in a lot of the same fields. Unfortunately, the state of Illinois has numbers on its side, and the UW campus is inundated with snooty kids from Naperville who got some sort of Mercedes-Benz product on their sixteenth birthday and had to trade it in for a newer model before they moved to Madison, where its primary purpose is to be parked illegally on Langdon Street. I imagine that these same kids are present in Champaign in even greater numbers.

As far as athletics are concerned, the Illini are straight-up funny. Year in and year out, they await the Second Coming of Kurt Kittner, and Ron Zook coaches their team. Their basketball team is a perennial bridesmaid, which I probably shouldn't mention given the Badgers' performance in the NCAA tournament this past year. Illinois, you have my disdain. It is no wonder I skipped over you and wanted to talk about Indiana instead.

6. USC: great football program, or greatest football program? Also, how about that SEC? Damn, those guys are fast!

USC is clearly the greatest team ever, until Notre Dame wins its next bowl game. Hollywood Pete sure can coach; I'm glad that Southern Cal not only gets the job done on the field, but also that they have such luminaries as Nick Lachey and Snoop Dogg orbiting their program. Every school should strive to achieve such levels of intellectual heft.

As for the SEC, there's no question that speed kills. The Auburn Tigers and Arkansas Razorbacks sped their way to Citrus Bowl defeats at the hands of the Badgers, and Penn State's win over Tennessee really hammered home the concept that the plodding Big Ten simply can't compete with those Southern teams. Of course, Ohio State being blown out by Florida is the only thing people will remember about the SEC's postseason achievements, so come December we'll undoubtedly be subjected to the same old farce ... and the Big Ten will win half their games, once again.

Trev Alberts fails to impress me

I'll lead off today's post with a link to a Q&A with Trev Alberts (the real Trev, not the awesome one). He's asked whether it's Michigan vs. Wisconsin for the Big Ten title, and mirabile dictu, he doesn't think so:

I say it's Michigan with an outside shot of Ohio State winning ... I still think they're going to have a terrific defense. They'll be just as good of a team, and have a worse record, with Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State on the schedule.

The above is a reasonable prediction, but where that ellipsis appears Trev offers the tired boilerplate we've been hearing over and again since last December: they only beat Michigan, Stocco was a caretaker, Bielema had beginner's luck. But then he goes on -- and maybe I'm reading this incorrectly, I don't know -- to say that the Badgers are clearly the fourth-best team in the conference (emphasis mine):

The two other teams after Michigan are Ohio State and Penn State. The Nittany Lions could be a little more surprising than some people think with Anthony Morelli. I know the Buckeyes lost some guys, but they have a lot of talent. They seem to be able to find some players. Remember how last year we were talking about Ohio State losing nine starters on defense?

I do, in fact, remember that. But they still had Troy Smith. Remember, the guy who got that funny little statue in New York before the bowl games? I know, and everyone knows by now, that it's patently unintelligent to count out Michigan or Ohio State under any circumstances (cue the "rebuilding vs. reloading" guy), and being a fan of a program that has seen the likes of Brooks Bollinger and John Stocco not only suffice but excel, I guess the fact that Morelli hasn't impressed me yet doesn't mean he never will. So who knows.

The bottom line here? Predicting things is stupid. Also, finding this article allowed me to get inside the Brain of Trev, which helped confirm everything I'd intuited by watching him for way too many Saturdays ... remember the days before ESPN wised up and canned his smarmy ass?

I've read that the Cover 2 is the ideal defense to use against college quarterbacks. Do you agree with that and if not, what is the best defense to use in the college game? - Jaime Lears, California

I think I know what article you're referencing, but I would caution against placing too much credence on a writer rather than having a former coach or current coach write that article.

Full disclosure: I'm not a former or current coach. Sorry for wasting teh internets with my know-nothing drivel. But let's continue:

Let me tell you, as someone who's been out there, that Cover 2 is not always the best coverage, period. If that was the case, that's the only coverage you would ever see.

The fact is there's no one coverage that's going to be the end-all. Football is too sophisticated. Cover 2 is an important, but small part of coverage.

So much of what you do depends on your personnel.

If you don't have safeties who can show you range of motion or stand in the box when needed, you have no coverage. And if you have great lock-down corners, Cover 2 nullifies their talents. If you're going to play Cover 2 for four quarters, you're going to get beat in the college game.

I'll give the poor owl a rest here.

Cover 2 has weaknesses. That's why good defensive coordinators run a whole lot of different coverages.

It's a good thing Trev's been there and done that. I certainly couldn't have gone all that in-depth.

Honestly now ... this guy's just looking for a default defense when he's playing NCAA 2008. Do you think he hasn't noticed that there are several available schemes? He's just asking, "What's best?" Which is a better question on any day of the week than "Who's Now?"

Other people's previews, part 2

The Badgers find their way into the countdown: Rivals.com says Wisconsin is the #8 team in the nation, and while they very astutely single out the receiving corps for praise, declaring Paul Hubbard "underrated," they also take P. J. Hill down a peg, saying he's the most overrated player on the team. Maybe that's not a bad thing -- after all, someone has to be the "most overrated" -- but I think what gets me is that they knock him for being injured toward the end of last season. Is that really a basis for deciding a player is overrated? I'd probably have singled out Elijah Hodge for that dubious award myself -- seems to me he's riding the name recognition of his widely-praised brother a wee bit. One of the things I most appreciate about the Rivals preview is that they leave the door open for a Badger BCS berth without a conference title; most people give me the impression that they believe that UW will need the automatic berth to get invited to one of the big-money bowls, probably fueled by lingering memories of last year's "snub." Overall, this is an excellent preview.

Penn State blog There Is No Name On My Jersey, whose name celebrates the Nittany Lions' tradition of being either too lazy or too cheap to hire a seamstress, insists on making fatal mistakes of judgment and re-tasting the sour grapes of the season gone bye:

Bielema and Wisconsin are on my shitlist for the abuse of the clock in last years game. It was a close game and the wasting of the clock was not in the spirit of the game. Yes it was cheating. Yes, it still pisses me off.

Incorrect! It was not cheating, and it was just as much "in the spirit of the game" as taking a knee is. Perhaps there's a little bitterness because Wisconsin has a young coach who continues to innovate within the rules where PSU has a living legend who, despite his considerable accomplishments, should've been gently "retired" a decade ago? Possibly.

How do I know it's not cheating? Because the NCAA rulebook (PDF) includes this provision, in Rule 3, Section 4, under the heading "Unfair Clock Management:"

ARTICLE 3. The referee shall order the game clock started or stopped whenever either team conserves or consumes playing time by tactics obviously unfair. This includes starting the clock on the snap if the foul is by the team ahead in the score. The clock will start on the ready-for-play signal after an illegal forward or backward pass that conserves time for Team A.

The officiating crew had the power to stop this if they thought it was an illegal tactic. But they didn't. So it wasn't. And EDSBS thought it was a ballsy enough move to declare Bret Bielema Person of the Year, and you know how Orson and Stranko aren't generally prone to hyperbole. (Some have also claimed that Bielema's tactic may have hastened the death of the hated clock rules, giving us more football to watch. Penn State fans, you're welcome.)

That said, their Badger preview fails to find P. J. Hill overrated; indeed, he is compared to a grotesque, overly-muscular dog, which is something. Go and read.

The Diag has a preview of the quarterbacks in the Big Ten. Obviously, Chad Henne finds himself in the #1 spot (does anyone have a preview where Chad Henne isn't declared the best QB in the Big Ten? Because that preview is insane), and coming in second place is, of course, Kellen Lewis of the Indiana Hoosiers.

Now, I admit that I didn't watch enough Indiana or Illinois football last year, but I did watch the Badgers play both teams, and let me tell you: Juice Williams impresses me a whole hell of a lot more than Lewis. For one, Lewis-to-Hardy is something opposing defenses picked up on about 18 months ago, and it's unlikely that anyone is going to disregard it this year. Meanwhile, Zook has been picking up considerable talent, and the role players around Williams will likely make the Illini offense more formidable than their Hoosier counterparts. (Of course, Zook has never really been the type of guy who actually develops the talent he snares, so the whole point is likely moot, but you see what I'm saying here.)

The Wisconsin QBs check in at #5 on the list, just ahead of Juice and right behind turnover machine Curtis Painter of Purdue and the oft-contused Anthony Morelli of Penn State. I expect the UW quarterback to eventually find himself at #2 or #3 in the conference, just as long as we don't have to bust out the unfortunate nickname I just made up ("Allan Average") midway through the season. Whoever lines up under center for Wisconsin will have Hubbard and Swan as go-to guys and Travis Beckum as probably the best safety valve in the entire nation. With Hill keeping the pressure off, the guy who winds up chucking the ball has a good chance at success.

Finally, the mgoblog preview of Penn State is up, and toward the end this snippet of commentary is offered:

Even though I am deeply skeptical about Morelli and the Nit offensive line, the comparison that is foremost in my mind is Wisconsin. The teams were virtually identical in 2006, stiff defenses coupled with mediocre or worse offenses heavily reliant on running the ball.

The Badgers are a trendy pick for Big Ten champs based on their 12-1 2006, but replace Bowling Green with Notre Dame and rejigger the Big Ten schedule to include Ohio State and you're probably looking at 10-3 and more reasonable expectations for a team that didn't prove all that much last year. Unit by unit on offense:

* QB: PSU. Even if Morelli was meh, he has a year of experience over Donovan/Everidge.
* RB: Wisconsin, but they have similar depth issues and Scott has one-year wonder upside.
* WR/TE: Penn State. Beckum is all the Badgers have; Penn State has Quarless, two guys who would be fine #2/#3 players, and at least the hope Williams lives up to his potential, plus Bell.
* OL: Maybe a push based on the similarities -- uninspiring starters returning from last year's team; top ten LT off to NFL -- but Bob Palcic fought in 'Nam and Wisconsin doesn't have a failed LG playing LT this year.

I figure the defenses will be near mirror images. The secondaries are a wash if not a slight PSU advantage -- more faith in AJ Wallace than Allen Langford -- and the presumed Wisconsin advantage on the D-line is offset by what should be one of the nation's premier linebacking units. If you consider the skill positions even, you're picking between the Wisconsin OL's advantage over PSU's line and Morelli's advantage over whoever Wisconsin throws out there.

My point is this: if you're looking for a darkhorse challenger to consensus favorite Michigan in the Big Ten, this is probably your team. I kind of hate saying that what with JayPa and all, but there it is. The differences between UW and PSU last year laid mostly in the quality of their opponents. The defenses will both be stout, intimidating things; if you made me pick between the offenses I would wince and take the Nittany Lions.

That wincing would be justified; I agree for the most part with the above assessment but find Brian's lack of faith in the Wisconsin receiving corps disturbing. I don't blame him for underrating them, as UW and Michigan locked horns in the conference opener last year, and he probably didn't see much of the progress made by Hubbard and Swan as the season went forward. The fact that Hill and Beckum had more than half of the Badgers' receiving yardage in that game also makes the actual receivers seem all the more suspect. I realize that Brian is a lot more circumspect than this, but our perception of other teams' strengths and weaknesses are tinted by the games our own teams played against them.

Bottom line: I expect the Badger offense to be better than Penn State's, the defenses will be a wash, and a very strong coaching edge has to go to Bielema and his not-yet-past-the-expiration-date nepotism-free bevy of assistants. The Badgers will be the better team next year, have no doubt; it's the venue and the timing that frightens me about the Penn State game, and I think there's a better than 50% chance that the Badgers lose that game. However, I think the smart money is on Wisconsin if you're picking between them and the Lions for a Big Ten championship.

Sunday Badger Bullets

A few thoughts over a Miller Chill (besides "Why did I spend $6.99 on this poison?"):

* If you haven't been reading Dave Heller's blog at the Journal-Sentinel, you ought to start. He's managed to pick up quite a few nice Badger-related tidbits recently. It's summertime, so the journalists are in full list-making mode, and in the college football world, Wisconsin is figuring nicely into a bunch of these lists. For example, UW is playing in what CFN considers to be two of the top 15 games for the 2007 season, and they even go so far as to predict the scores; Wisconsin loses the 14th-biggest game by two touchdowns to Ohio State and beats Michigan in the eighth-biggest -- all of which goes to show that the good people at CFN probably haven't seen many UW-OSU or UW-UM games over the past quarter century.

* In possibly more-shocking listmania (again, courtesy of Dave Heller), Tom Dienhart of the Sporting News names Jack Ikegwuonu the best player in the Big Ten. He doesn't give any reason for doing so beyond "he's impressed me," but it's worth noting that UW, Michigan, and Ohio State get just about equal time in the top 20 Big Ten players for the season. (Purdue, Indiana, and Illinois each have one player in the top 20, while UW, UM, OSU, and PSU get multiple picks). Another caveat: this is the work of Tom Dienhart.

* John Oates thinks it's high time that UW gets itself a football title. I don't disagree. I'd talk more about this, but his point is so obvious that it doesn't warrant much comment: large athletic department revenue ought to lead to national titles.

* Alando Tucker has signed with the Phoenix Suns. He can now officially expect his team to score 115 points every other night but still manage to melt down in the postseason.

And finally, as a reward for having read this far, here is a picture of legendary Brewers' radio announcer Bob Uecker with a furry (hat tip to the Brewers' TV announcing crew for this one).

Badger Football: 2007 Storylines

2006 is long gone. After walloping non-conference cupcakes and dropping a single conference decision, the John Stocco-led Badgers defeated 2007 Heisman candidate Darren McFadden and the Arkansas Razorbacks for their second Citrus/Capital One Bowl victory in two years.

In the end, we saw a new coach, the irrepressible Bret Bielema, make a splash, starting his career with a 12-1 record (good for a .923 winning percentage!) We saw John Stocco become one of the most poised senior quarterbacks in the Big Ten, coming back strong after an injury sidelined him midway through the season. We witnessed a freshman, the tubby P. J. Hill, become the clear frontrunner in one of the most wide-open RB races in Wisconsin history. His path was cleared by big Joe Thomas, the lineman who wound up being the third overall pick in the NFL draft. On the other side of the ball, cornerback Jack Ikegwuonu became the leader of a unit that yielded just 12 points per game ... better than both the heralded Michigan and Ohio State defenses.

All in all, it was a very satisfying season. Thanks to a seamless coaching transition and a dozen victories, 2006 helped make the case that with Badger football, the sky ought to be the limit. Although the Bielema era is just a season old, it appears that we can discard any lingering fears of a return to the sub-mediocrity that preceded Barry Alvarez's tenure. At the very least, this program's going to be trekking to warm-weather destinations every year around Christmastime. But we're not interested in the very least; there's a not-insignificant portion of the Badger fanbase that believes that one of these years, a national championship should be on the radar -- and that year should be coming sooner rather than later.

I can't quite say I'm in that camp just yet. But I do think that Wisconsin fans have the right to expect big things this season. That should become clear as I outline what I believe to be the major storylines to watch for in the 2007 Wisconsin Badger season.

1. Settling the quarterback controversy

It's a rare year when Badger fans don't know who their starting QB will be to begin a season. And yet, here we are. This uncertainty is a luxury, though, as I'm not sure how optimistic people would be if we knew that 2007 meant a full year of 6'1", 187-pound Tyler Donovan backed up by the (by all accounts) raw Dustin Sherer. It's a little worrying to have such a small guy in a key position when every team, at least in the Big Ten, is going to have defenders orders of magnitude larger than that bent on destroying the QB every single down. Donovan is a mobile quarterback, definitely the exception for the Big Ten and Wisconsin in particular, but even as a fifth-year senior, as Jeff Potrykus puts it, "his overall play continues to be marred by curious decisions and errant throws."

Donovan is game-tested, having filled in marvelously during the Iowa game after John Stocco was hurt and, well, I guess I don't feel comfortable with calling the Buffalo game "game experience." You'd think that would be in his favor, but the guy who's competing for his job has actually played in more games. Allan Evridge sat out last year and joins the team as a junior, transferring from Kansas State after the departure of head coach Bill Snyder prior to the 2006 season. I'm not concerned by the middling numbers he put up as a Wildcat, as even good players but up so-so numbers when surrounded by mediocre talent. What you lose in mobility when going from Donovan to Evridge you gain in bulk, and probably arm strength and, eventually, poise. For now though, Evridge has struggled in spring practices.

For now, I think Donovan will be the starter -- but he'll be kept on a very short leash. I don't know an incredible amount about Bret Bielema, but I don't think he's the kind of guy who'll put Donovan out there just because he's been a Badger for five years now; his job is to win football games, and he's going to play the guy who is most likely to help him finish that job. I think that the years of experience that Donovan has had with essentially the same offense is going to be the determining factor in this quarterback race, but if he's not performing, look for Evridge -- maybe before the Big Ten season begins.

2. Picking up where the 2006 team left off

Eleven regular season wins, one loss, and an ugly, gritty victory over Arkansas in the Citrus Bowl. The question before this Badgers is this: was 2006 a stepping stone to an even more spectacular season, or is 12-1 a high water mark for the program?

Several things have to go right for the Badgers this year. They need the quarterback controversy settled, period; that's the single biggest issue for this team. Following that, everyone needs to pitch in and do his part. P.J. Hill needs to be the leader of the offense, even though he's just a sophomore; on an average play, more than half the guys out on the field will be blocking for him, stalling for time so he can use his bulk and his eyes to pick up chunks of yardage. The receiving corps, including Luke Swan and Paul Hubbard, grew up before our very eyes last season and need to continue to improve; the best medicine for a raw quarterback is a WR who can make plays on his own. Travis Beckum at tight end is already being hailed as Wisconsin's best pro prospect; he's a guy other teams will have to worry about.

As for the defense, they need to keep on keeping on. The cornerbacks should be fine, with Jack Ikegwuonu leading the way, and evidently the safety position, while questionable, has found a couple of nice surprises in the persons of Shane Carter and Aubrey Pleasant (who, incidentally, judging by their first names, might actually be girls. They are not helped by being backed up by Kim Royston.) With any luck, the linebackers will stay strong, and the defensive line will continue to improve in rushing the quarterback.

The bottom line for the team is to learn from where they've been and replace the guys who've had to depart.

3. Defining Bret Bielema

After a couple seasons as defensive coordinator and one season as head coach, we know a little bit about who Bret Bielema is. In being picked by Barry Alvarez as the heir to the UW coaching throne, Bielema was pegged as a star, and after the enormous raise he received a few months back, it appears that UW is gunning to keep him here for a very long time indeed.

He's a winner, that's for sure; indeed, he was the first Badger head coach to amass seven wins in his rookie season since the venerable William Juneau managed the feat in 1912. He's a hard-nosed recruiter who can close a deal with a high school kid; he played a major role in recruiting at Kansas State and before he landed the head job in Madison.

Still, we don't know a lot about the guy. It will be interesting to see how he handles the Donovan/Evridge situation; my gut feeling is that he'll be very interested in building continuity, and keeping Evridge for two years is more likely to pay off than a one-and-done stint for Donovan. I also feel that he's a loyal guy, which would seem to bode well for the fifth-year senior, but he's more loyal to a winning game plan than to individual players.

Another area of interest will be that of discipline and academics. Big-time recruit John Clay, the running back out of Racine, is confirmed as having some issues to work out before the season begins; those issues are rumored to be academic in nature, with one source saying that Clay hasn't even been admitted to UW yet. As for discipline, Bielema is in the unenviable position of having his star cornerback working his way through the legal system. Ikegwuonu was arrested in Novemeber but played in the bowl game, which seems to be a pattern for Badgers accused of doing wrong thus far; both Jamal Cooper and Elijah Hodge were suspended from the team last season (Cooper for academic reasons; Hodge had actually been arrested), only to be reinstated immediately before the next game, and James Kamoku received no public reprimand for a vicious, unnecessary twist to the leg of Michigan's Steve Breaston on a special teams play. This is something I addressed previously:

Wrong, coach. You're the new guy on the block so you make an example out of someone who makes an obviously dirty play. End of story. Kamoku needs to be out against Indiana. Even if he is, though, the opportunity to show the conference the type of disciplinarian you are has gone out the window.

I didn't like the reinstatement of Cooper right before the season started. I didn't like the fact that I saw Hodge in the game on Saturday. I don't like the fact anything less than singling out and making an example of Kamoku was the course of action taken in this instance. But what I really, really don't like is the pattern that's emerging. That pattern, so far, indicates that Bret Bielema wants to win football games -- and he's not particularly interested in how that happens or the character of his athletes. Any positive vibe I had from the dismissal of Booker Stanley has dissipated.

Thus far, it would appear that either every Badger is innocent or that Bielema is lax when it comes to discipline. Hopefully Jack Ikegwuonu has to face the consequences of his actions. I like our teams to win, but I dread watching UW become a place where thugs run wild.

4. Racing toward a conference title

It's a wonderful thing to force oneself to be realistic and still see the possibility of a Big Ten title on the horizon. If the quarterback situation is sorted out (big if, I know), UW could be looking at a championship year. The Badgers miss Purdue and Northwestern this year, which is just as well since these are teams that have provided inexplicable struggles for Wisconsin through the years. The two tough road games will be at Penn State and at Ohio State, and unless my predictions are way off, I expect the Badgers to walk out of those two venues victorious. Even though Ohio State always has truckloads of talent, it seems like everyone with game experience chased the NFL money last year (as opposed to that sweet, sweet Ohio State money) and I think they'll be a little bit depleted. As for Penn State, if we can mount any kind of a pass rush, Anthony Morelli is going to be rattled; I really don't think he has what it takes to win the Big Ten. The date to circle is going to be November 10 when Michigan invades Camp Randall; with their all-star offense, Michigan is going to be putting up 40 points a game, but with their utter lack of defense, they might be giving up 40 as well. Mark it -- that game is for the Big Ten title, or at least a share of it.

And you thought "prime time" was supposed to be a good thing

On the surface, the Big Ten Network -- a TV station devoted wholly to Big Ten sports -- should have cable companies scrambling for the privilege of carrying it, at least in the Midwest.

But then you sit back and think about the very public battle between the NFL Network and the cable companies who refused to pay the high price (70-80 cents per subscriber). Then you think about the popularity of the Big Ten -- a single conference -- versus the popularity of the entire NFL. And the fact that the Big Ten Network wants even more money than the NFL Network did: over $1 per subscriber. The cable companies didn't buckle to the NFL, and the realization hits: this station just isn't going to be available.

The Big Ten, though, is easing into this thing. It's said that certain football games will be televised exclusively on its network. Evidently, they're trying not to step on any toes; take a look at the prime time schedule for the 2007 season:

Sept. 1 -- Indiana State at Indiana, 8 p.m. EDT
Sept. 8 -- Syracuse at Iowa, 7 p.m. CDT
Sept. 15 -- Duke at Northwestern, 7 p.m. CDT
Oct. 13 -- Indiana at Michigan State, 7 p.m. EDT
Nov. 3 -- Illinois at Minnesota, 7 p.m. CDT

Hmm. Indiana, Illinois, Minnesota, Northwestern, Iowa, and Michigan State fans will all have to fanagle a way to see one of their team's conference games. Who doesn't?

Fans of Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Wisconsin, and Purdue.

Like I said, the Big Ten isn't trying to tick anyone off initially. They've managed to keep the schools with the biggest, most rabid fanbases out of the death-hole of BTN Primetime.