THE Ohio State University takes down Purdue

I don't know whether it was my pledge to indulge the Buckeyes' love affair with the definite article or simply the promise of a sweet, sweet chaw, but I'm going to go ahead and take responsibility for the Ohio State Univeristy's basketball triumph over former conference leader Purdue in Columbus tonight. The Buckeyes won 80-77 in overtime.

To be perfectly honest it's amazing that the Bucks managed to pull this one out, especially considering that for much of the second half their gameplan consisted of fouling Boilermaker players who had picked up their dribble in completely senseless places and allowing slightly-contested threes to go in. But Jamar Butler decided that the Thad Matta express needed some steam heading into the NIT (let's face it, that win wasn't nearly enough to get the Buckeyes off the bubble) and exploded for 23 points in the second half and overtime and picked his team up when they were way, way down.

A lot of sound and fury winds up signifying nothing in the end, and unless the Badgers do the improbable and drop a home game to Penn State or somehow all get arrested or deathly ill before the Northwestern trip, an outright Big Ten title and a #1 seed in the conference tournament should come pretty easily to this team.

Hats off to the Buckeyes for doing what Wisconsin couldn't all year and allowing this team to back its way into the Big Ten title by itself. Toward the end of the game, Brent Musburger stated that "the celebration is starting in Madison!" I don't see it or hear it or taste it so I'd better go out and find it. Musburger's never been wrong about that kind of thing, right?

OK Badger fans -- wear red today

Something you're used to doing, I'm sure, but today let's make it scarlet instead of cardinal. Thad Matta is a better coach than Matt Painter, Ohio State has talent that's at least on par with Purdue's, and the game's at Ohio State's majestically-named Value City Arena -- plus the Buckeyes have got to be amped up to play spoiler.

Tell you what, Bucks ... if you win tonight, I'll fulfill your deepest desire: during over the course of the Big Ten Tournament, I'll refer to your school as THE Ohio State University.

Climbing the ladder: Wisconsin 58, Ohio State 53

And just like that, the Badgers sit alone atop the Big Ten. Sure, they've played one game more than Indiana and Purdue, but the numbers don't lie: while the Badgers are 13-2, the rest of the conference is playing catch-up.

It wasn't an easy victory, nor was it necessarily pretty. The Badgers coughed up a dozen turnovers during the first half and went one-for-seven from the field in the last six minutes of the game. But that one shot was an emphatic dunk courtesy of Marcus Landry with 12.7 seconds to go that put the Badgers up by five and the game on ice, and in the second half Wisconsin took care of its turnover problem, giving the ball away to the Buckeyes just twice.

Even without a true superstar on the team, the Badgers continue to find a way to win. Today, Jason Bohannon came off the bench and scored sixteen points. Brian Butch got in early foul trouble but came back with two tremendous blocks in the late going. Marcus Landry and Michael Flowers scored in the double digits. And -- most importantly -- the team played through its turnovers to keep things even at halftime and made a second-half adjustment. That was enough to win the ballgame.

Up next, what should be the last tough game before the conference tournament: a visit from the Spartans on Thursday.

Badger basketball: they could win the Big Ten again

Overall, you have to be impressed with this year's edition of the Badger hoops team: they lost superstar Alando Tucker and sharpshooter Kammron Taylor and have still managed to play their way to a top-ten ranking during the last weekend of February. Currently, they sit atop the Big Ten standings, tied with Purdue and half a game ahead of Indiana. Let's take a look at the five teams that are still in contention for the regular-season crown and show why the Badgers have a great shot at winning it all.

Wisconsin currently 12-2; remaining games are @Ohio State, Michigan State, Penn State, @Northwestern: The Badgers need to get through the Buckeyes -- a foe that has the ability to make things a little more interesting than the team would like -- and then get to host Michigan State. The Spartans haven't fared well at the Kohl Center, historically, and this year's team is faltering in Big Ten play. A home date with Penn State and a road finale at Northwestern should be a couple autowins. 4-0 to close out the season is probable; 3-1 is a worst-case scenario.

Purdue currently 12-2; remaining games are Minnesota, Northwestern, @Ohio State, @Michigan: The Boilermakers took care of business against the big boys of the conference early, and the reward for that is an end-of-season stretch against middle-of-the-pack teams and bottom feeders. They have just about the same remaining schedule as UW, and the results should be similar: 4-0 is likely, anything less than 3-1 would be a jaw-dropper.

Indiana currently 11-2; remaining games are @Northwestern, Ohio State, @Michigan State, Minnesota, @Penn State: the Kelvin Sampson fiasco has finally reached its end, and while the Hoosiers played some inspired ball for their embattled coach down the stretch, I just don't see them finishing the season strong under interim coach Dan Dakich. I'm predicting 2-3 for what could be a tentative Hoosier team -- they'll bookend a three-game losing streak with wins at Northwestern and Penn State.

Michigan State currently 9-4; remaining games are Iowa, @Wisconsin, Indiana, @Illinois, @Ohio State: you never want to count the Spartans out, even when they're trailing three teams by two full games. Head-to-head matchups with the Badgers and Hoosiers will provide an opportunity to close the gap with a couple of the top teams in the league, but this schedule is grueling. The finale could be the difference between the Big Dance and the NIT for the Buckeyes, so they'll be up and ready. The big issue for the Spartans, though, is that three games are on the road; in conference play, Tom Izzo's team is 7-0 at the Breslin Center and 2-4 on the road -- including a loss at Penn State and an absolute travashamockery of a game at Iowa in which the Spartans gave up 43 points and LOST. Look for this trend to continue; at best the Spartans finish 3-2; they'll lose at Wisconsin and at Illinois or Ohio State (or both).

Ohio State currently 8-5; remaining games are Wisconsin, @Indiana, @Minnesota, Purdue, Michigan State: the Buckeyes are still technically in the race, but it would take a lot of surprising losses by top teams to propel them to the conference title. They play each of other top-six teams in the conference one more time. Obviously, there are no gimmes on that schedule. Thad Matta's boys blew a chance to keep pace with the Spartans last weekend when they lost their "easy" game against the lowly Wolverines. If OSU winds up winning the conference title, expect the Big Ten to send a gaggle of nine-seeds to the Big Dance and none to the Sweet Sixteen.

So, as has been the story since they dropped both matchups with them this year, the Badgers will need to rely on a Purdue miscue to win them the outright conference crown. At this point, though, the Badgers are in control of their season and will grab a share of the title if they can win out.

Losing streak

Unlike the pathetic contest with Michigan State, it's tough to sit back and instantly know what went wrong with this one.

Well, one obvious thing was having Kam Taylor at the free-throw line with a possibility to change a one-point lead in the dying seconds of the game to a three-point lead, only to have him miss the first shot of a one-and-one. The Badgers weren't doing great from the line to begin with (they didn't get there very much in the first place) but with a senior on one of the top teams in the nation, who has the sixth-best free throw percentage in the conference ... you just HAVE to make that shot.

This game was memorable for a lot of reasons. It was officiated very loosely; the referees "let 'em play," that's for sure. Greg Oden committed about twelve fouls and was actually called for three, which in my book means the game was called really fairly. (Seriously ... he didn't get away with as much as he usually did. Hell, they called him for a travel on a pivotal possession! What more can you ask for?) Then we had several replays of Brian Butch's injured elbow, a nice shot of Joe Krabbenhoft picking his contact lens off of the court and putting it in his mouth, then Thad Matta doing the same thing with a piece of gum. Jason Bohannon went off while the nation watched -- he'll ably fill the hole that Kammron Taylor leaves when he graduates.

So, the game ended with a blocked shot after a pretty finger-roll by Mike Conley, and the Badgers have now lost two in a row. It's funny; this is possibly the best team Wisconsin's ever fielded, and they're not even going to win the conference.

A Florida loss keeps some hope for a one-seed alive, and the Big Ten Tournament title is still definitely within reach. But this is a bad penultimate regular-season game result, and now the Badgers will have to go where they're going without Brian Butch's services.

So, now we sit and wait, and hopefully beat Michigan State at home. Hopefully there's some fun left for the Wisconsin Badgers this season.

(If you want to relive the game, the Capital Times has a liveblog up.)

Basketball Q&A with Around the Oval

Prepare to be Buckeyed: Sean over at Around the Oval thought it might be fun to do some basketball Q&A since this weekend's game is going to be bigger than Cats. His answers to my questions appear below; my answers to his should be up at his blog in a short time. Go on over and check out his fine site. You'll get all kinds of good info and commentary from the other side of the matchup as you anxiously await this Sunday's tip!

1. Michigan State beat the Badgers on Tuesday by doing three things, all of which were related: (1) They clogged the lane and didn't allow the Badgers to penetrate; (2) they forced Wisconsin to take a season-high 28 three-point shots, many of which they missed, and several of which occurred as the shot clock was expiring; and (3) they rebounded extremely effectively on both ends of the court. Which, if any, of these sound like hallmarks of Ohio State's game?

Number three is definitely a part of the Buckeyes' game; according to the Big Ten Wonk, the Buckeyes rank second in offensive rebounding percentage and first in defensive rebounding percentage. Number one is kind of a part of OSU's game. Players can penetrate the OSU defense, but as long as Oden's in the game and standing under the basket, those guys will generally either get their shot blocked or realize going inside was a bad idea and kick the ball outside. Number two is related to the first point in that Oden's presence forces a lot of threes (in Purdue's first game against the Buckeyes, Carl Freakin' Landry was jacking up threes). However, teams have been making enough of those threes for it to be worthwhile for them. It's great to see an opponent forced to shoot threes, but when they make 40% of them? Not so much.

2. What cost the Buckeyes the game when they came to Madison? Have you seen improvement in that area since then?

I'd say it was Greg Oden playing injured and being rusty, and the lack of a second quality big man. Oden had an okay game (ten points, seven rebounds), but OSU needs better than an okay game when they play one of the top teams in the country. He wasn't as dominating as you'd (or rather I'd) like to see. Some of that was because he was playing injured, and some was because of foul trouble. He's still not the absolutely dominating player you expect, but he's playing better, and he's playing smarter, so there has been improvement there.

If memory serves, Oden picked up at least a couple of those fouls defending pick-and-rolls away from the basket. Pulling Oden away from the basket like that was a good move: he doesn't defend nearly as well when he's not in the low post, and it freed up the inside, leading to Kammron Taylor driving to the basket over and over and getting put on the line sixteen(!) times. Now, if a team tried that, OSU would probably put Othello Hunter, a 6'9" forward who's really improved over the season, on the big man that sets the screens and have Oden just stay under the basket.

But on the other hand, the Buckeyes played pretty well in Madison. They shot well from outside, they contained Alando Tucker, they spread the scoring load. OSU has looked far worse in some games since then (in particular, they haven't shot threes as well as they did in Madison). So the improvements noted above may be offset by the Buckeyes playing worse in other facets of the game.

3. What's with the close calls to Penn State? The Badgers had no problem with them, and the Buckeyes seem to be a very solid team, and (possibly most importantly) the game wasn't on TV in Wisconsin, so I'm curious.

That's a good question. In the first game, the Buckeyes blew a big first-half lead, so the consensus was that the Buckeyes just took PSU too lightly and eased up in the second half. But then the rematch happened, and Penn State was in the game for its entirety, even leading for a while. I think the Buckeyes just had trouble with the Nittany Lions' 2-3 zone, especially the shooters, who didn't shoot well enough to take advantage of the openings given by the zone. Additionally, Oden didn't get the ball enough, particularly in the second game, though I'm not sure whether that's a result of the zone or Buckeyes players choosing to ignore the 7', 280 pound guy going up against 6'5" Jamelle Cornley in the low post. Overall, I'd chalk the close games up to a lack of focus by the Buckeyes (something the Badgers probably won't be able to take advantage of) and trouble handling a zone (something the Badgers might be able to take advantage of, if they so desire).

4. Rapid fire prediction time! Give me the percent likelihood of the following: Ohio State wins the Big Ten regular season title; Ohio State wins the Big Ten tournament; Ohio State makes the Final Four; Wisconsin goes farther in the NCAA tournament than the Buckeyes.

Regular season title: 60% outright, 95% co-champs with Wisconsin (assuming that, as in football, a team can share the title with a team that beat them)

Big Ten tournament: 40% (several teams will have more to play for than the Buckeyes and might pull off an upset, then there's the possible re-rematch with the Badgers)

Final Four: 30% (16 of 40 one seeds have made the Final Four in the past ten years (40%), then a deduction because the Buckeyes could be a two seed and because they aren't a dominating team like many of those one seeds)

Wisconsin going farther: 55% (I'm still hoping the Buckeyes reach their potential and play like a great team, but the Badgers have been more consistent and more consistently impressive this season)

5. Fill in the blank: Greg Oden will play basketball in Columbus for _____ season(s).

I gotta go one season. Oden could improve his game by staying for another year (or more), and college is fun, but he has nothing to gain financially by sticking around, and he'd be risking injury or slipping down draft boards Leinart-style. As much as I'd hope otherwise, and regardless of what he says, I still expect he'll make the safe financial decision at the end of the day.

Badgers 75, Gophers 62

In the beginning, the game looked like it was going to be one of those last gasp upset bids, those everything-but-the-kitchen-sink efforts that a team that's going nowhere somehow pulls out against a contender in the final weeks of the season. The Gophers were hitting triples, minimizing Wisconsin's scoring chances, and went into the locker room down only four, and, maybe more importantly for a team that had been on the wrong side of eighty-plus-point efforts in consecutive games, having only given up 28 points total.

But the Badgers came back and did what they do: hit big shots, wear you down, leave your arena with a win. Alando Tucker put up a gaudy 29 points (despite a cold run in the second half where he went 0-for-5), Kam Taylor and Michael Flowers scored in the double digits, and Jason Chappell shut down the Gophers' most potent scoring threat, Spencer Tollackson.

The Badgers were helped out by Gopher miscues, but ultimately this was a win that they created on their own. The most encouraging thing to take away from last night's game was that the things that went wrong went wrong because of the inherent inconsistencies in basketball. Some nights, you have a half in which you shoot 29%. Some nights, your star misses a couple layups. But if your team is strong enough and doesn't commit errors, you'll win. And that's what the Badgers did.

Looking at the two-point victory that the Buckeyes squeaked out over the Nittany Lions, Saturday's matchup with Penn State would appear to be more of a showdown than anticipated. With any luck the Badgers' effort on Saturday will look more like their Wednesday game, and not the Buckeyes'.

The perils of speaking too soon

It was nice while it lasted. The Badgers were in a 59-59 tie with under 5 minutes to go, and despite some late clutch shooting by Kam Taylor, found itself on the wrong side of the scoreboard at the final buzzer. The winning streak ends at 17 games. Time to start a new streak, guys.

Take a look at my previous post. "Indiana lives and dies by the triple?" Well, in the second half they went 5-for-6 from beyond the arc, and that (along with shooting 62.5%) was what finished off the Badgers.

This was a fantastic game, despite the result. Wisconsin shot 50% from the floor in the second half, a good effort. There were four ties and nine lead changes, big runs by both teams, hot shooting, strong defense, everything you could want besides the win. Indiana had the three-point shot working and scored 11 points on fast breaks, and at the end of the game their fans got to rush the court.

Hats off to the Hoosiers. They'll be one of those dangerous 4, 5, or 6 seeds -- the one that nobody wants to see on their side of the bracket.

There are plenty of insults to add to tonight's injury, too. Florida managed to parlay their 11-point halftime deficit to a 17-point win over Vanderbilt and UNC wound up bashing Miami in a gaudy 41-point win. If those teams hold serve through the weekend, the Badgers will almost definitely drop from their program-high #2 ranking. Worse, Ohio State came alive and held off Purdue, so they're now tied with the Badgers for the Big Ten lead. Indiana is now one game back. But with Iowa's win over Michigan, I think it's safe to call this a three-team race for Big Ten title contention.

(Bonus note of petty bitterness: A. J. Ratliff has stupid Dumbo ears! Go get some Ear Buddies, dummy!)