Showing posts with label big ten tournament. Show all posts
Showing posts with label big ten tournament. Show all posts

Sunday, March 16, 2008

Badgers overcome Spartans, officiating


49 fouls. 56 free throws. Four Spartans fouling out. Three fouls called on three-point attempts (two of which actually sunk, leading to four-point plays). This is what the Big Ten puts forth when the entire nation is watching? Seriously? Ed Hightower and his gang of whistle-blowing goons ought to be ashamed. LET THEM PLAY, guys. LET THEM PLAY.

49 fouls, and though 30 went against Michigan State, the biggest of the game by far was the first whistle of the second half. That one that sent Michael Flowers to the bench just 32 seconds after intermission. After his departure, the Spartans ran their lead from 29-27 to 39-29, and it looked like it was going to be an ugly afternoon for Wisconsin. With Flowers restricted in his defensive duties, Spartan sharpshooter Drew Neitzel had a field day; the kid that Flowers shut down at the Kohl Center mere weeks ago had every opportunity to pick and choose, and he made good.

On an afternoon when the Badgers shot just 37% from the field, free throws kept them alive, and even those didn't go smoothly; Brian Butch missed four straight, the normally ultra-reliable Jason Bohannon missed both of his in the closing seconds -- shots that would've taken the margin from 2 to 4 in the last possession of the game.

Make no mistake, the Spartans were the number one contributors to their own demise. (And make no mistake: anything that brings on a good old-fashioned Tom Izzo whinefest is a good thing.) It was made clear early on that the officials were going to blow plays dead at every opportunity, and Michigan State failed to adjust their style of play. The end result: all three of their big men -- Ibok, Suton, and Naymick -- fouled out in a 56-second span in the second half, forcing MSU to match smaller players up with the likes of Brian Butch.

An unfortunate consequence of this game was the potential loss of Trevon Hughes, who's now being called a game-time decision. The Badgers shouldn't need him today, but they will absolutely require him through the NCAA tournament. He was spotted wearing a walking boot. As far as I'm concerned, it would be better for the Badgers to lose today without him than risk further injury and bow out early from the Big Dance as a result of his absence.

So now the Badgers get Illinois in the final game. The ten seed in the Big Ten Tournament, doesn't a part of you want to see the Illini win and get the auto-bid? But there's so much at stake here to root for something like that. If MSU had pulled it out yesterday, yeah, I'm cheering for the Illini all the way. It would be much better, though, to see the Badgers put two trophies in the case before the Big Dance even starts, and to cling to the dream that maybe they'll have to make room for a third.

Friday, March 14, 2008

Badgers will meet the Spartans tomorrow

The Big Ten Tournament -- which is apparently the worst ever -- rolls on, and the Badgers will get their chance to put together the State of Michigan Sweep tomorrow when they take on Michigan State. The tip is at 12:40 pm (Central time) and the game will be aired on CBS, not the Big Ten Network. I emphasize that because the BTN stole another one from the general viewing public tonight when it kept 10-seed Illinois's victory over #2 Purdue off of most cable systems. (Props to one Purdue blog for foreseeing trouble when Penn State didn't off the Illini.)

Michigan State advanced due to a rare (in 2008) virtuoso performance from Drew Neitzel. Michael Flowers is going to have to shut Neitzel down again. He'll be up to the challenge after hounding Manny Harris all day today. With any luck Brian Butch will stay true to his style of play and not come out timid after his bout of foul trouble today. Bo Ryan will have the opportunity to boost his record against Tom Izzo to a gaudy 11-3 with a victory ... and I believe he'll get it.

Final score: Wisconsin 61, Michigan State 55.

Badgers dominate Michigan in Big Ten Tournament Quarterfinals



The gameplan for defeating the 2008 Michigan Wolverines is uncomplicated: stop Manny Harris. Michael Flowers did just that, and the end result was defensive dominance: Michigan shot 20% from the field, which was actually improved by UM's 6-for-24 performance from beyond the arc. That's right: the Wolverines were 4-for-26 on 2-point attempts, a dismal 15.4%. That pathetic rate led to a record-low performance; till today, no team had ever finished a Big Ten Tournament game with fewer than 40 points.

Some will exclaim, "surely you can't be referring to a 51-point effort as dominance!" Oh, but I can. Much of that was due to Ed Hightower's fondness for whistling Brian Butch early and often, limiting the Polar Bear to 16 minutes on the floor.

Now we wait for the winner of the Michigan State/Ohio State game. I think Michigan State is the better matchup for the Badgers, so that's who I'm cheering for.

Thursday, March 13, 2008

Wisconsin will face Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament

Early this afternoon, the Michigan Wolverines outsmacked Iowa in the opening game of the Big Ten Tournament, coming away with a glorious 55-47 victory. And by glorious I clearly mean stupefyingly dull; 12 minutes with a field goal? COMBINED?! Wow. Maize 'N' Brew talks about the Wolverines running their victory total to the double digits and the privilege of facing the Badgers tomorrow:

On a positive note, this is Michigan's first Big Ten tournament win under Beilein and it ensures Michigan will finish the season with double digits in the win column. Michigan also has the good fortune of drawing Wisconsin, a team it scared the holy hell out of two months ago, as its next opponent. During the teams' second meeting in Ann Arbor, Michigan came within three points of topping the then 11th ranked Badgers. This is even more remarkable when you consider the Badgers shot 60% from the floor during the second half, and they almost lost. Good sign? Maybe. You can take it for what its worth.

As much as I'd like to say it's a good omen, Michigan lost its next three games in embarrassing fashion, including a double digit home loss to Minnesota. Looking back Michigan lost the season's first meeting with Wisconsin by 16. Further, the Badgers shot just over or just under 50% against Michigan in both games. Better defense or not, Wisconsin isn't going to pull an Iowa and shoot 32%FG and 12% from three. No one should be holding their breath for an upset.


Pardon my discouraging tone but despite the near upset, this is not going to be pretty for Michigan. Not in the slightest. At least the Michigan fans can enjoy the victory and the fact that beating Iowa produces outbursts like this from BHGP.

Looking ahead, the Prospector (author of the Cardinal and White Chronicles) engages in some amateur bracketology here and here) in order to make a case for the Badgers to get a #2 seed in the Big Dance; he winds up making the case for the other team in both cases. So it goes. Being the top #3 seed puts UW closer (geographically) to Madison for the Regional round, which is a bonus.

Wednesday, March 12, 2008

The run-up to Big Ten Tournament time

Nerdy graphs: KJ at the excellent Spartans Weblog revels in his nerdery, and why not? After all, it can produce super informative third-order polynomial plots!:

The idea is to smooth out individual game performance to see the general direction a team’s performance seemed to be moving in at a given point in the season. Intuitively, this should tell us whether a team is on the upswing or downswing as the regular season ends–although I can’t definitively say the method is predictive. I should also note there are a couple flaws in this approach:

* It doesn’t account for quality of opposition–an upward trend could represent a grouping of weak opponents on the schedule (or vice versa).
* It doesn’t account for home/away game. Other than the occasional three-game bunch of home or away games for a particular team, though, the home/away factor should be smoothed out by the trendlines in most cases.


As expected, the Badgers come up with the best graph:



Essentially, if your team is improving, you'll see that blue line start trending up and the red move down. And does it ever in the Badgers' case! KJ is careful to note that this may be misleading, as the Penn State and Northwestern massacres are likely pulling those curves apart artificially, but any time you can get a Spartan fan to call your team's performance "frightening," you're definitely getting somewhere.

What they're saying about the Big Ten Tournament: Obviously the time for prognostication is upon us. Here are some selected takes:

  • From the Barn sees Purdue over Wisconsin in the final

  • Purdue fans at Off the Tracks have that same machup but believe the Badgers will finally best Purdue

  • Statistical guru Ken Pomeroy lays out odds that would cry out for calls of homerism if I generated them: the Badgers have a 56%(!) chance of winning the Big Ten Tournament, a 72.6% chance of making the finals, and a frickin' 95.8% chance of beating the winner of the Iowa/Michigan game. Does that sound absurdly high to anyone else? I mean, you're telling me that if Wisconsin and Iowa or Michigan play 20 times, the Badgers win 19? Really?

  • In the name of Marchifornication, the Hawkeye geniuses behind BHGP have a sample bracket up, and ... hey, wait a minute ...

  • Memorable occasions that usually involve Badger losses are recounted at Ohio State's Buckeye Commentary


  • So what's really going to happen during the Big Ten Tournament? Glad you asked; my picks are up in the comments at Spartans Weblog where I am going to win a sweet frickin' t-shirt:

    DAY ONE
  • Iowa over Michigan: The two most plodding offenses in the conference waddle to a combined 70 points. Iowa wins by two, which would pretty much be a blowout

  • Illinois over Penn State: The Lions got their big season-ending win against IU. There's nothing left in the tank. The walking wounded have a LONG trip to the tournament and will have a longer one home.

  • Minnesota over Northwestern: Their opponent isn't Michigan, so the Wildcats can't win.


  • DAY TWO
  • Wisconsin over Iowa: Too many weapons. Iowa can't overcome the all-out attack the rested, healthy Badgers have planned. Michael Flowers blocks five shots.

  • Ohio State over Michigan State: MSU is in the Dance; the Buckeyes might be. The desperate Bucks pull away late, much like they did on Sunday, which shocks exactly nobody as the Spartans have been horrendous (3-6) away from East Lansing against Big Ten foes

  • Purdue over Illinois: With a week to go in the regular season, the Boilermakers thought they were going to be Big Ten Champions. That melted away and now they're on a mission of vengeance. Illinois is unceremoniously shoved out of the way.

  • Indiana over Minnesota: I want to pick the Gophers, but the tournament's located in the state of Indiana so I just can't do it. The Hoosiers have the talent to win and the crowd will be behind them, but the contrast between the mess Kelvin Sampson made and the rock-solid foundation Tubby Smith is laying couldn't be more stark. If this is in Chicago I pick the Gophers without hesitation.


  • DAY THREE
  • Wisconsin over Ohio State: The Badgers avenge last year's embarrassing tournament loss by getting their second win over the Buckeyes in 2008.

  • Purdue over Indiana: The Battle for the State of Indiana finally turns Purdue's way as an uninspired, undercoached Hoosier squad comes out flat.


  • DAY FOUR: TITLE GAME
  • Purdue over Wisconsin: Purdue has been the monkey on the Badgers' back, and UW's futility when the train-guys show up continues. Purdue's frustrating defense makes the difference and the Boilermakers hoist a trophy after all.
  • Sunday, March 09, 2008

    2008 Big Ten Men's Basketball Tournament Bracket is set

    Michigan almost kept things interesting this afternoon, but midway through the second half Purdue pulled away and wound up beating the Wolverines, securing the #2 seed in the conference tourney as a result. Michigan will play #8 seed Iowa at 11 am on Thursday to tip this thing off, and the Badgers will play the winner of that match on Friday at 11 am.

    Click the image below to get your full-sized graphical version of the tournament bracket, presented in handy .jpg form for better desktop-wallpaper purposes.

    Saturday, March 08, 2008

    Outright championship is official: Wisconsin 65, Northwestern 52

    The Badgers had no problems whatsoever with the Wildcats as they secured a double-digit victory in front of what essentially amounted to a home crowd in Evanston (Matt LePay said that 80% of the crowd was wearing red and emphasized that this was a pretty conservative estimate). Bring on the Big Ten Tournament! The Badgers will be the #1 seed and will face the winner of the 8/9 game at 11 am on Friday in Indianapolis. The participants in that game will be determined tomorrow but as of right now could include Penn State, Iowa, Michigan, or Illinois.

    All we need now is a North Dakota hockey victory and this weekend will be count as good.

    Sunday, March 02, 2008

    Thank you, Spartans: Big Ten now a two-horse race


    Michigan State put up 59 points in the first half against Indiana and never looked back, reaching triple digits in a home win over the Hoosiers.

    So now it all comes down to Wisconsin and Purdue. Penn State visits the Badgers on Wednesday, then the Badgers close out the season on the road at Northwestern. Purdue has to go on the road twice: they visit struggling Ohio State on Tuesday and Michigan on Sunday. It looks like a 2-0 finish for both teams, which would give the Boilermakers the #1 seed in the Big Ten Tournament, but those Buckeyes could surprise Purdue.

    Until then, though, we salute the school whose mascot is a man in a dress: thanks again, Spartans!

    Sunday, March 11, 2007

    Chasing down that one-seed

    The Badgers did it again yesterday, using stifling defense to hold the Illini to a season-low 41 points in the semifinals of the Big Ten tournament. So, the Big Ten tournament worked how it was supposed to; #1 Ohio State and #2 Wisconsin advance to the final, setting up a rubber match for the season series.

    Obviously, a ton is at stake here; the winner will almost certainly get a one-seed for the Big Dance (although I think that Ohio State will get a one-seed regardless; people seem very high on them and their resume is strong) and will close out the season with 30 wins before the tournament even begins. The loser will fret for a couple hours, then ultimately hear their seeding, destination, and chump first-round opponent.

    The Badgers' play in the tournament thus far has been encouraging. Kammron Taylor got his groove back, Alando Tucker's been a scoring machine (and he's become not only Big Ten Player of the Year, but UW's all-time leading scorer; congrats!), and Stiemsma and Krabbenhoft have filled in admirably for the injured Brian Butch. What you're watching is a team that's ready to make a tournament run. If they can go 13 minutes at a time without turning the ball over like they did against Illinois, the Badgers have a shot at going all the way. They just need to snap out of the offensive cold periods that they've experienced recently and they'll be all set.

    It was nice to see the Badgers ready for Michigan State on Friday, too. After the first two games, I know most Wisconsin fans were dreading that matchup. Fortunately, Neitzel came out cold (and was remarkably well-defended by Michael Flowers), they played a sloppy, foul-and-turnover-filled game, and the Badgers didn't stoop to their level. I was once convinced that the Spartans were going to be a great sleeper pick for the NCAA Tourney, but after their struggles with Northwestern and their poor effort against the Badgers, I'm picking them to go one-and-done.

    Hopefully this afternoon we'll see the Badgers come out with a fury and smoke the Buckeyes. Then we can look forward to that tense matchup with Central Connecticut State.

    Thursday, March 08, 2007

    One hour to the Big Ten Tournament

    Here's how it goes down:

    Thursday's Games
    (8) Michigan 68, (7) Minnesota 61
    (7) Michigan State 59, (10) Northwestern 44
    (6) Illinois 65, (11) Penn State 53

    Friday's Games
    (8) Michigan 52, (1) Ohio State 51
    (5) Purdue 67, (6) Iowa 59
    (2) Wisconsin 60, (7) Michigan State 58
    (3) Indiana 72, (6) Illinois 58

    Saturday's Games
    (5) Purdue 63, (8) Michigan 53
    (2) Wisconsin 70, (3) Indiana 65

    Sunday's Game
    (2) Wisconsin 62, (5) Purdue 50

    What, who'd you think I was going to pick?

    More previews at Penn State's Black Shoe Diaries, Big Ten Wonk, the Final Score, and Buckeye Battle Cry.