Big Ten Bloggers: Football Prognostication

Hats off to Lake the Posts once again. This week: a potpourri of predictions. Regard:

Coach of the Year: In an utterly uncompetitive conference, Jim Tressel emerges as the only choice to pick up this award.

Most Likely To Strike Heisman Pose: the Heisman is a popularity contest based on media love, and the man who's been the recipient of a disproportionate amount of hype is James Laurinaitis of Ohio State. The Heisman people don't like to get away from quarterbacks and running backs, but this guy could break into the group of finalists with a flashy performance against USC and continued success throughout the season.

Last Year's Illini Will Be This Year's ???? (most improved): I really don't see one. Maybe Michigan State with a couple of breaks. Maybe Purdue if Curtis Painter grows a brain. But I see Ohio State, big gap, Wisconsin/Penn State, big gap, lots of other teams, big gap, Minnesota/Northwestern.

Upset game of the year (include non-conference): Probably not an upset right off the bat considering all the kinks that will need to be worked out but I could certainly see Utah over Michigan.

Name You'll Know In December That No One Knows In June: I have to stay within my own team for this one. It'll be presumptive Badger starting quarterback Allan Evridge. With competent receivers, a huge target in Travis Beckum, a stable of running backs to keep the heat off of him, and the weakest crop of Big Ten quarterbacks in memory, Evridge has a shot to make an impression right away. While he appears to be another in the unbroken line of caretaker quarterbacks in Madison, this guy is game tested -- he was the starter at Kansas State a few years back, and he competed for the starting job last year right up till the very end (though Tyler Donovan wound up winning out.)

Most Likely To John McLaren (aka lose it in postgame rant): If Rich Rodriguez beats him with all the wrong personnel, look for Mark Dantonio of Michigan State to melt down after the game. Yes, it seemed like the Spartans hired him solely as a contrast to the wackiness of John L. Smith, but listen to his comments here and tell me there's not a whole volcano of crazy bubbling up under the surface:



Highest NFL Draft Pick in 2009: Travis Beckum. This question came pre-filled in with Chris Wells (thanks for the help LTP!) and I can't disagree that he -- along with like ten other Buckeyes -- would be a great pickup, but let's face it: great tight ends are tough to find, and Beckum could be one for the ages. He runs, he catches, he blocks, and most of all he does this:



The Must See Game of the Year that is not Ohio State - Michigan: Woe be unto he who thinks that UM/OSU is a must-see this year; Tressel is going to welcome Rich Rodriguez to the Big Ten with an unprecedented pummeling. If Tressel didn't have more class in his fingernail than Woody Hayes had in his whole body, this would 1968 all over again. The talent gap isn't huge but the change in philosophy in Ann Arbor is. Beating the Buckeyes without a quarterback? I don't think so.

Anyway, the answer to that question is certainly Ohio State-USC, a game that will take place in California on Saturday, September 13. Hats off to both teams for saying "to hell with it, let's end someone's season in week three" and scheduling this amazing out of conference matchup. Ohio State has done a remarkable job of scheduling these marquee games over the past few seasons and is to be held in high esteem for doing so. USC and OSU will do battle on the field, but the real competition will happen in the clubs after the game when they use booster money to out-"make it rain" one another. (Prediction: Carroll wins!)

2008 Badger Football -- a very early look at the offense

The preseason college rags are hitting the shelves at the local stores, and with the Stanley Cup Finals over, another middling effort by the Brewers, and the unwatchable NBA doing what it does worst, a guy's mind focuses solely college football season, due to start less than three months from now.

If you thought last year was a big question mark for the Badgers, (1) you were right and (2) hold on to your hats this year. Much like last season, the Badgers are going to rely on an unproven senior at quarterback with Allan Evridge becoming the starter. Thus far, some have deigned to term him "horrific" based on his completion percentage over twelve tries -- that's what the best analysts do, right?

But more likely, the former Kansas State starter will be the latest in a line of Badger quarterbacks that competently hand off to PJ Hill and make the safe throw to Travis Beckum while occasionally lobbing a bomb (and even more occasionally completing said bombs). I don't expect Evridge to cost the Badgers any games but I don't expect him to steal any extra victories either.

So it goes with this program until we get back to having multi-year starters. Caretakers at QB is the story of the recent very-good-but-not-great Badgers. Maybe this Jon Budmayr kid is the answer to that problem.

Wisconsin Badgers Football 2007 Preview: the Offense

Your starting quarterback: Tyler Donovan. A redshirt senior from Hartland, Donovan has one year to be the guy for the Badgers. A backup to John Stocco, Donovan was called into service at the end of the 2006 season, starting the Badgers' wins against Iowa and Buffalo. He performed admirably, finishing the season with a passer rating of 161.34 while completing 63% of his passes, but again: we're talking Iowa and Buffalo. He gives the Badgers decidedly more mobility than Stocco had but at the cost of arm strength. The real question is whether he's mentally prepared for a starting role.

Backing him up: Allan Evridge. Evridge was a nice surprise for the Badgers, transferring from Kansas State after the dismissal of Bill Snyder in 2005. After sitting out the 2006 season, Evridge was expected to compete for the starting role with Donovan, but Coach Bielema indicated very early on in fall camp that Donovan was destined to start. I speculated that Evridge might be a more attractive choice at starter due to his additional remaining year of eligibility, but Bret Bielema knows that the future doesn't matter if you're not winning today. It's Donovan's job to lose, but if he's shaky, Evridge might be able to seize the starting role with a strong performance if Donovan gets the hook. He did, after all, make numerous starts as a Kansas State Wildcat.

Backing up the backup: Redshirt junior Dustin Sherer is absolutely the third-string quarterback. Redshirt freshman Scott Tolzien was a Rivals two-star recruit and will almost definitely not play. Incoming freshmen Cody Rose and James Stallons will redshirt.

Your starting tailback: P. J. Hill. Hill, the Wisconsin Winnebago, led the Big Ten in rushing as a redshirt freshman last season. He averaged 5 yards per carry, pounded out 1569 yards, and plowed into the end zone 15 times. He also displayed competence as a receiver, catching 18 passes for 197 yards and a score. Bielema intends to make use of Hill's pass-catching ability this year (detailed in this article, once you get past the embarrassing parts about stripping naked and wearing plastic bags) and touts his breakaway speed. When Hill gets free, he's tough to stop; p=mv, y'all. His numbers last season can't be denied, even though at one point Coach Bielema requested that his star back pop a few "toughen-up pills" and he did end the season on a disturbing note, gaining just 36 yards on 19 carries in the Capital One Bowl against Arkansas.

Backing him up: Lance Smith, Zach Brown, and John Clay. Second-stringer Smith is back with the team after an incident that began with an argument over $10 and ended with a call to police and some shoe-stealing. He's got experience at the collegiate level, having seen action in twelve games last year, but he didn't do all that much; when Hill was injured against Illinois, Smith ran for 46 yards on (ugh) 21 carries. Through camp, Bielema made it known that Smith's shortcomings are with mentality and maturity; physically, he's doing fine.

Zach Brown is a freshman who established himself as the third-string back at camp. This may or may not have changed when star recruit John Clay became academically eligible. The word appears to be that Clay is still not in football shape (he did miss a lot of practice) so it appears the order will be Hill-Smith-Brown-Clay, but that is subject change. Regardless, expect a big year from the running backs again; with a new quarterback, the ground game is going to have to be top notch.

Your starting fullback: Chris Pressley. Pressley jumped over the very capable Bill Rentmeester in the depth chart this fall. He sat out last year with a leg injury, shed about twenty pounds, and is back to do to unto others as he does unto weights: he shall squat them, 770 pounds at a time. Pressley took a trip to China over the summer -- he's one of those bright kids who isn't just here to play football, wishing instead to embrace the academic experience as a whole. No word yet on whether he managed to hone his Shaolin shadowboxing whilst overseas.


Shaolin shadowboxing and the Wu-Tang sword style. If what you say is true, the Wu-Tang could be dangerous!

Backing him up: Bill Rentmeester. It was about 53 weeks ago to the day that Bill Rentmeester found out he would be taking over as the Badgers' starting fullback. A redshirt junior majoring in biology (what is it with our fullbacks being polymaths?), Rentmeester played in every game last year. Oddly, he was never asked to carry the ball, but he did become the first Badger fullback in six years to catch a touchdown pass (this against Bowling Green). It's tough to compete with a freak like Pressley, but Rentmeester is one of those guys that you can't help but like. He's likely to continue to contribute on special teams this season.

Your starting wide receivers: Luke Swan and Paul Hubbard. Both guys are fifth-year seniors who didn't see much action until last season, but they became game-tested in a real hurry. Their numbers are incredibly similar; Swan caught 35 balls for 595 yards and 5 scores, while Hubbard pulled in 38 for 627 and 5. Swan's got the hands, and Hubbard -- a champion long-jumper -- has the agility. These guys aren't virtuosos or anything, and they probably won't be able to clean up most of the mistakes that Donovan might make. But they're solid, experienced players, and they'll be consistent deep threats.

Backing them up: Xavier Harris and Kyle Jefferson. Harris, a sophomore from Fort Lauderdale, was a frequently-deployed third wideout who rarely saw a ball come his way. That figures to change this year. Jefferson appears to be the guy voted Most Likely To Possibly Approach Chambers/Evans; he's big and fast, and hopefully his mind and his hands will be ready for the college game. A stable of lesser receivers, including Lance Kendricks, David Gilreath, Isaac Anderson, and possibly Marcus Randle El, will back up the other four receivers. Daven Jones, who wasn't able to make it to campus last year, is now on the squad but has a lot of people to jump before he sees the field.

Your starting tight end: Travis Beckum. Volumes and volumes have already been written on Beckum. You don't need me to tell you very much about #9. Recruited as the #6 linebacker in the nation out of high school, Beckum spent his freshman year stagnating as a defensive backup. He was plugged in at TE right from the get-go in 2006 and finished the year as the Badgers' leading receiver. He's been named to several preseason first-team All-America lists and, if his run-blocking improves this season, could be making big money in the NFL at this time next year. He's going to be double-covered all year long.

Backing him up: Andy Crooks. Few teams have the luxury of having a second-string tight end who has played in 38 games and made 19 starts. The University of Wisconsin does. Crooks is a converted linebacker and, like Beckum, has lined up at fullback as well. Opponents will live in fear of the Badgers' jumbo package this year.

Your starting offensive line will feature four returnees: Eric VandenHeuvel at right tackle, Kraig Urbik at right guard, Marcus Coleman at center, and Andy Kemp at left guard. Of course, the missing guy is Joe Thomas, who is currently driving an all-gold Rolls Royce somewhere in the vicinity of Lake Erie. Redshirt freshman and local product Gabe Carimi (Monona Grove) steps in as the Last Best Hope on Donovan's blind side. (Side note: Allan Evridge is left-handed, so if Donovan gets bounced, he'll have a more experienced lineman protecting his blind side.) Mgoblog has pointed out a discrepancy between the line's ability to create holes for Hill (good) and the fact that John Stocco seemed to taste a lot of Fieldturf last year (bad). My prediction: experience will allow this line to gel quickly, and their increased capability combined with Donovan's non-statuesque style of quarterbackery will lead to sexy results.

All in all, the offense looks promising, but will ultimately come down to Donovan's readiness. Hill won't regress, but if Donovan can't keep defenses off-balance by moving the ball through the air, that won't matter in the least. Fortunately, an experienced receiving corps and an offensive line packed with upperclassmen are there to help the QB out when the punishing convoy of Hill and Pressley turn their CB radios off for a play.

***

And now, a word from our sponsor: That's all the information you need to make your football picks, and that concludes my college football preview for the Badger offense.

Preseason bong hits with Kirk Herbstreit

Lighter? Check. Peyote? Check. List-makin' pen? Double check! LET'S DO THIS!

Ol' Kirk is handing out the Herbies today; let's run down his list:

• Travis Beckum is rated as the fourth-best tight end nationwide.


• Jonathon Casillas finds his way to #5 on the outside linebackers list, subtitled "all over the field."


• John Clay is on the Top True Freshmen list.


• Bret Bielema is already rated the 7th-best game-day coach. (Read that, Nittany Lions? People LOVE that clock-killing maneuver. LOVE. IT.)

Not bad, eh? A little love for the Badgers.

Except ...

• P.J. Hill doesn't crack the top twelve list for running backs. Don't worry Kirk, no need to put the Big Ten's leading rusher for 2006 on your list!


• Anthony Morelli is projected to be the most improved QB in the game. By itself, not a bad thing to say, but ...


• Pick to win the Big Ten: Penn State. Um, great. Sez Herb: "If Anthony Morelli plays the way he did in the Outback Bowl, the Lions are BCS bowl bound." Big "if" there, bucko.


• Sleeper pick to with the Big Ten: Iowa. Ohhhhh...kayyy??? Here's the rationale: they don't play Michigan or Ohio State, and they're "flying under the radar." Why didn't I think of that!?


• Wisconsin doesn't crack the top ten Game Day Locations. Herbstreit puts Ohio State at #1 (I wonder why?) and includes Iowa (!?) on the list. I've been to Iowa for game day, and let me tell you: it is no Madison, WI. Hell, it's not even Ann Arbor. Iowa City is definitely in the bottom half of football destinations in the Big Ten, and it's certainly not the #8 place in the nation.

Finally, Wisconsin doesn't crack the top five student sections, and although we're a loud and obnoxious bunch I agree in this case. See the rationale in the 2005 Herbies:

Wisconsin has always been one of my favorite places, but it lost serious points lately. Lighten up on the beer bongs. Have a little more respect for your opponents; and remember, there are kids around, too, so maybe yelling profanities in every other chant isn't such a good idea.

And that's not to mention the mild-mannered, generally non-controversial Chris Fowler's take (from 2004):

Writing to UW students, he said, “You guys are great. For energy, boisterousness, originality, you get A’s … But the constant, collective F-bombs are lame and tired … [and] it’s beneath you.”

Fowler also criticized compact discs thrown by some students during the game, as well as their tardiness to the game versus Penn State Saturday.

“The students got an “F” for punctuality. The [student] section was about 20 percent full at kickoff!” Fowler wrote, adding, although seats filled to capacity quickly, it was not good enough for the undefeated Badgers’ Big Ten opener on national television.

“Be there on time! The beer bong will still be sitting there when you get back after the game,” he continued.

It IS beneath us. Badgers are way smarter and way classier than constant F-bombs. This is simply embarrassing (obviously, don't click if you don't want to hear profanity):



I love a loud football crowd. I love taunting the opponents. I love well-channeled malice, used to create an intimidating atmosphere. But I don't love swearing just to swear, and I don't love the attitude that "We party so much that we CAN'T be on time for the game!!!" Screw that; wake up 15 minutes earlier and get yourself to your seat on time for kickoff.

Badger links for moving day

It's moving day here in Madison, which means chaos in the streets. It's also pretty funny, since (a) it's raining and (b) I don't have to move, so ... HA HA!

Also, it looks like UW-Madison is going to get a little more annoying, as they're making the place more accessible to parents:

Amy Smith is anxious. She's known for years this time would come, but now the day when she and her husband, Stan, will deliver Alynna, their oldest child, to UW-Madison for the first time is almost upon them.

"We're sending our child into unknown territory," said Smith, of Darlington. "She's been under my wing. I know all of her friends, I know what she's doing during the day, I know what she's doing at night. We're very close."

Uncharted territory indeed -- except to the 356 THOUSAND LIVING ALUMNI OF THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN. Get a grip.

Anyway, onto the sports. That's why you're here, right?

* Tom Dienhart of the Sporting News can't wait to see Bret Bielema match coaching wits with Penn State's Joe Paterno. He doesn't specify whether the Joe Paterno he speaks of is the one who actually coached the team a decade and a half ago or the one who appears on the sidelines today.

* The WSJ reports that Allan Evridge still isn't fully comfortable with his role on the team yet. Evidently, though he was comfortable enough to smoke the defense in practice on Monday, turning the tables on that unit from this weekend's action.

* It's probably nothing, but Travis Beckum, Jack Ikegwuonu, and DeAndre Levy sat out of practice on Monday and Tuesday due to minor injuries.

Devastating defense ...

... or a devastated offense?

That's one of the great things about scrimmages: it's freakin' impossible to tell. We have this much to go on:

Reserve cornerback Ben Strickland intercepted one pass and broke up another.

Freshman linebacker Blake Sorensen showed effort and athletic ability to break up a pass near the goal line.

Cornerback Jack Ikegwuonu saved a touchdown with a break-up.

Even reserve defensive tackle Jeff Stehle got in on the action with an interception.

Those were most of the memorable plays from an extended red-zone session during the University of Wisconsin football team's fourth pre-season practice Thursday.

Lots of defense, which is excellent and to be expected, until you realize that:

The offense did not score a touchdown until its 14th play, on a 3-yard completion from Allan Evridge to Travis Beckum.

Tyler Donovan missed his first six passes and was sacked in the No. 1 offense's first seven plays. It included a drop by Hill in the end zone.

Fourteen tries? Holy cow. It's still early, thank goodness, but fourteen tries? Seriously.

Allan Evridge and Dustin Sherer enjoyed the most success of the quarterbacks.

Evridge had the first score, a 3-yard strike to tight end Travis Beckum. He fired arguably the best pass of the day, a 15-yard bullet to Xavier Harris for a touchdown.

Sherer fired a 12-yard touchdown strike to Beckum.

Tyler Donovan should have had a touchdown throw in the first segment, but tailback P.J. Hill was unable to hang on to the ball in the end zone.

P.J.'s hands were one of his assets last year. I'm sure he'll be back in rhythm in short order.

And finally ... well, let's just say that this would be fun as a change of pace:

Donovan and Evridge, both gifted runners, began running the option. "It's just playing to players' strengths," Bielema said, adding that UW's defense would face some option this season.

If they got good, I mean really good at this, wouldn't it be ridiculous to see them come out during a stalemate or even when the Badgers were behind and run the option? Get a big play out of that, move into a no-huddle, go for a quick strike, try a direct snap to Hill or a reverse to Hubbard or a flea flicker ... the mind boggles. Bielema's got a lot of potential to work with here; some creativity on offensive coordinator Paul Chryst's part, and the offense could be just as dangerous as the D.