Big Ten Bloggers - an opening salvo

A consortium of bloggers -- Penn State's Black Shoe Diaries, Michigan's Maize-n-Brew, and THE Ohio State's Around the Oval decided that the Big Ten's finest bloggers (if "finest" is defined as "everyone who bothered to reply to a particular mass email") needed a group that was founded for the express purpose of promoting intraconference discourse and interblog flamethrowing. That is to say, this network of bloggers will make it far easier to show one another our Pokemans.



There's been some discussion of coming together on common topics in conjunction with the Big Ten football meetings to which, as far as I know, none of us have obtained access. In the spirit of outright audacity, I have picked myself(!) to lead open the discussion with this august group of blogmeisters, and with any luck people will find the questions I asked interesting enough to warrant a response. Look for a roundtable wrap-up post on this blog in the coming days!

On to the questions:

1a. The press and the coaches will be predicting the Big Ten champ at the Hyatt Regency in Chicago on Wednesday. That's fine, but overdone. In lieu of boilerplate predictions of who will come out on top, which Big Ten team will be the most surprising? Remember, surprises can be good or bad; the underdog who comes out of nowhere to share the title is just as surprising as the favorite who winds up with five losses and no bowl bid.

I'd look for Indiana to be your surprise team this year, although that's largely by the process of elimination. I would be genuinely shocked if the top four in the conference wasn't made up of Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Penn State. Out of the remaining teams, you have Minnesota and Michigan State in shambles and with first-year coaches. You've got the Zookster at Illinois with his stable of decent recruits and absolute vacuum of coaching prowess. Then there are Iowa and Purdue, sometimes-contenders whose gameplans have both been figured out by the rest of the conference. Iowa might make some noise if Drew Tate's replacement shines, but the general feeling appears to be that this is a "rebuilding year." As for Northwestern, they will certainly annoy one legitimate contender and remain irrelevant the rest of the way.

So I pick Indiana. Lewis and Hardy are a remarkable tandem, and if other threats emerge in the IU offense, they just might be able to mitigate the damage that opponents will wreak upon their awful defense. And of course the Hoosiers will have an emotional edge, having just lost Terry Hoeppner. I think IU has a chance to be the fifth-place team in the Big Ten this year -- that's the upper half, people.

1b. Imagine it's December, and the consensus in the media is that your team's season was "surprising." Is this a Good Thing or a Bad Thing? What would have to happen for you to consider your team's season surprising?

Almost definitely a bad thing, unless you're part of the fanbase that has persisted in whining about "no respect!" for the past decade. In a worst case scenario, both Tyler Donovan and Allan Evridge turn out to be interception machines and/or headcases, new left tackle Jake Bscherer allows rushing defenders to flatten the aforementioned QB, Jack Ikegwuonu is made to stay off the field for his XBox harvesting mission in DeKalb, and the team generally suffers a meltdown. Maybe Washington State upsets the Badgers and the road trips to State College and Columbus become nightmares. We wind up with 6 losses and are shamed in the Motor City Bowl by some MAC team. The surprising 2007 Wisconsin Badgers are bad Wisconsin Badgers indeed.

2. A preseason player of the year will also be dubbed in Chicago. For your team to succeed, which player or unit is going to have to put forth a "player of the year" performance? What's the one position that would take your team to the next level if it performs above expectations?

With nine returning starters on offense and seven returning starters on defense, the Badgers aren't in a bad position at all. And of course, fretting over the quarterback is a logical and all-too-simple thing to do. So I'm going to go with the second-most-obvious position to worry about: safety. Roderick Rogers and Joe Stellmacher were above average safeties, meriting a second team all-conference award and an honorable mention, respectively, and each played important roles in giving the Wisconsin defense teeth last year, notably Rogers with his interception to kill Penn State's momentum in the first half of last year's game. Aubrey Pleasant and Shane Carter have both shown promise but need to be lights out right from the get-go for the Badgers to have a shot at containing teams that like to throw the ball.

3. Which Big Ten team's out-of-conference schedule would you most want to have this year? Why? Do you think your team will have out-of-conference losses this year?

I want Iowa's OOC schedule. They've got a neutral-site game against Northern Illinois at Soldier Field, a game at Iowa State, and home dates against Western Michigan and Syracuse. Two MAC teams and two major conference basement-dwellers is a fine if unexciting OOC schedule.

Michigan State has scheduled well too, with home games against UAB, Bowling Green, and Pittsburgh preceding a road date with Notre Dame. Everyone else has been digging in the I-AA cookie jar, which is simply unappealing. I still can't believe I'm paying actual US currency to see the Citadel.

4. Here's a chance to look like a complete genius in a few months: pick the biggest in-conference upset that will happen this season. Justify your prediction!

I don't have the heart to pick Michigan State over Michigan even though it's a classic trap game (a road date for the Wolverines the week before @Wisconsin and then Ohio State.) So I'm going to pull one straight out of my be-hind and pick another matchup from that same date. A bruised but exuberant Penn State team is coming off a very hard-fought victory over the Ohio State Buckeyes and, with one last home game before visits to Temple and Michigan State, the Nittany Lions plan to coast to Big Ten glory. Pass-happy Purdue comes to Happy Valley and catches the Penn State secondary napping in the first quarter, and an Anthony Morelli interception and another quick strike puts the Boilermakers up 21-0. The Lions wake up and play three solid quarters after that, but they never make up the ground they gave away early on, and Joe Tiller's team wins by six or less.

5. Say something nice about the Big Ten school whose name precedes yours alphabetically. Say something mean about the one that comes after.

The Purdue Boilermakers run one heck of an engineering school. Their bell tower is cool looking. They were a real pleasure to watch during the Drew Brees era, and I like the World's Biggest Drum a lot. Also, their head coach looks like the kind of guy who can really appreciate a nice bukket.

As for Indiana, it is a loser school for losers. It employed Bob Knight, one of the most classless individuals to ever be hallowed by a collegiate basketball program. (And don't give me any of this "Oh, he graduated so many of his students!" I care a little, but that doesn't forgive the tantrums or the fact that ESPN wasted my time with "A Season on the Brink.") Also, Indiana broke everyone's heart when they beat the Badgers 63-32 in 2001. Screw you, Randle-El!

edit: D'oh!!!! How dumb am I? Dumber than a loser attending a loser school majoring in loserese. So intent was I on drubbing Randle-El that I failed to acknowledge the existence of Illinois. Augh!

Just for that, Illinois is, of course, the sworn enemy of Wisconsin. The states are enemies, anyway. Illinois is full of cheap bastards who charge you to drive on their roads, then bring their H2 Hummers up I-39 to go to "the lake" and generally be obnoxious. The schools are big-time rivals too, academically, being near equals in a lot of the same fields. Unfortunately, the state of Illinois has numbers on its side, and the UW campus is inundated with snooty kids from Naperville who got some sort of Mercedes-Benz product on their sixteenth birthday and had to trade it in for a newer model before they moved to Madison, where its primary purpose is to be parked illegally on Langdon Street. I imagine that these same kids are present in Champaign in even greater numbers.

As far as athletics are concerned, the Illini are straight-up funny. Year in and year out, they await the Second Coming of Kurt Kittner, and Ron Zook coaches their team. Their basketball team is a perennial bridesmaid, which I probably shouldn't mention given the Badgers' performance in the NCAA tournament this past year. Illinois, you have my disdain. It is no wonder I skipped over you and wanted to talk about Indiana instead.

6. USC: great football program, or greatest football program? Also, how about that SEC? Damn, those guys are fast!

USC is clearly the greatest team ever, until Notre Dame wins its next bowl game. Hollywood Pete sure can coach; I'm glad that Southern Cal not only gets the job done on the field, but also that they have such luminaries as Nick Lachey and Snoop Dogg orbiting their program. Every school should strive to achieve such levels of intellectual heft.

As for the SEC, there's no question that speed kills. The Auburn Tigers and Arkansas Razorbacks sped their way to Citrus Bowl defeats at the hands of the Badgers, and Penn State's win over Tennessee really hammered home the concept that the plodding Big Ten simply can't compete with those Southern teams. Of course, Ohio State being blown out by Florida is the only thing people will remember about the SEC's postseason achievements, so come December we'll undoubtedly be subjected to the same old farce ... and the Big Ten will win half their games, once again.

Other people's previews, part 2

The Badgers find their way into the countdown: Rivals.com says Wisconsin is the #8 team in the nation, and while they very astutely single out the receiving corps for praise, declaring Paul Hubbard "underrated," they also take P. J. Hill down a peg, saying he's the most overrated player on the team. Maybe that's not a bad thing -- after all, someone has to be the "most overrated" -- but I think what gets me is that they knock him for being injured toward the end of last season. Is that really a basis for deciding a player is overrated? I'd probably have singled out Elijah Hodge for that dubious award myself -- seems to me he's riding the name recognition of his widely-praised brother a wee bit. One of the things I most appreciate about the Rivals preview is that they leave the door open for a Badger BCS berth without a conference title; most people give me the impression that they believe that UW will need the automatic berth to get invited to one of the big-money bowls, probably fueled by lingering memories of last year's "snub." Overall, this is an excellent preview.

Penn State blog There Is No Name On My Jersey, whose name celebrates the Nittany Lions' tradition of being either too lazy or too cheap to hire a seamstress, insists on making fatal mistakes of judgment and re-tasting the sour grapes of the season gone bye:

Bielema and Wisconsin are on my shitlist for the abuse of the clock in last years game. It was a close game and the wasting of the clock was not in the spirit of the game. Yes it was cheating. Yes, it still pisses me off.

Incorrect! It was not cheating, and it was just as much "in the spirit of the game" as taking a knee is. Perhaps there's a little bitterness because Wisconsin has a young coach who continues to innovate within the rules where PSU has a living legend who, despite his considerable accomplishments, should've been gently "retired" a decade ago? Possibly.

How do I know it's not cheating? Because the NCAA rulebook (PDF) includes this provision, in Rule 3, Section 4, under the heading "Unfair Clock Management:"

ARTICLE 3. The referee shall order the game clock started or stopped whenever either team conserves or consumes playing time by tactics obviously unfair. This includes starting the clock on the snap if the foul is by the team ahead in the score. The clock will start on the ready-for-play signal after an illegal forward or backward pass that conserves time for Team A.

The officiating crew had the power to stop this if they thought it was an illegal tactic. But they didn't. So it wasn't. And EDSBS thought it was a ballsy enough move to declare Bret Bielema Person of the Year, and you know how Orson and Stranko aren't generally prone to hyperbole. (Some have also claimed that Bielema's tactic may have hastened the death of the hated clock rules, giving us more football to watch. Penn State fans, you're welcome.)

That said, their Badger preview fails to find P. J. Hill overrated; indeed, he is compared to a grotesque, overly-muscular dog, which is something. Go and read.

The Diag has a preview of the quarterbacks in the Big Ten. Obviously, Chad Henne finds himself in the #1 spot (does anyone have a preview where Chad Henne isn't declared the best QB in the Big Ten? Because that preview is insane), and coming in second place is, of course, Kellen Lewis of the Indiana Hoosiers.

Now, I admit that I didn't watch enough Indiana or Illinois football last year, but I did watch the Badgers play both teams, and let me tell you: Juice Williams impresses me a whole hell of a lot more than Lewis. For one, Lewis-to-Hardy is something opposing defenses picked up on about 18 months ago, and it's unlikely that anyone is going to disregard it this year. Meanwhile, Zook has been picking up considerable talent, and the role players around Williams will likely make the Illini offense more formidable than their Hoosier counterparts. (Of course, Zook has never really been the type of guy who actually develops the talent he snares, so the whole point is likely moot, but you see what I'm saying here.)

The Wisconsin QBs check in at #5 on the list, just ahead of Juice and right behind turnover machine Curtis Painter of Purdue and the oft-contused Anthony Morelli of Penn State. I expect the UW quarterback to eventually find himself at #2 or #3 in the conference, just as long as we don't have to bust out the unfortunate nickname I just made up ("Allan Average") midway through the season. Whoever lines up under center for Wisconsin will have Hubbard and Swan as go-to guys and Travis Beckum as probably the best safety valve in the entire nation. With Hill keeping the pressure off, the guy who winds up chucking the ball has a good chance at success.

Finally, the mgoblog preview of Penn State is up, and toward the end this snippet of commentary is offered:

Even though I am deeply skeptical about Morelli and the Nit offensive line, the comparison that is foremost in my mind is Wisconsin. The teams were virtually identical in 2006, stiff defenses coupled with mediocre or worse offenses heavily reliant on running the ball.

The Badgers are a trendy pick for Big Ten champs based on their 12-1 2006, but replace Bowling Green with Notre Dame and rejigger the Big Ten schedule to include Ohio State and you're probably looking at 10-3 and more reasonable expectations for a team that didn't prove all that much last year. Unit by unit on offense:

* QB: PSU. Even if Morelli was meh, he has a year of experience over Donovan/Everidge.
* RB: Wisconsin, but they have similar depth issues and Scott has one-year wonder upside.
* WR/TE: Penn State. Beckum is all the Badgers have; Penn State has Quarless, two guys who would be fine #2/#3 players, and at least the hope Williams lives up to his potential, plus Bell.
* OL: Maybe a push based on the similarities -- uninspiring starters returning from last year's team; top ten LT off to NFL -- but Bob Palcic fought in 'Nam and Wisconsin doesn't have a failed LG playing LT this year.

I figure the defenses will be near mirror images. The secondaries are a wash if not a slight PSU advantage -- more faith in AJ Wallace than Allen Langford -- and the presumed Wisconsin advantage on the D-line is offset by what should be one of the nation's premier linebacking units. If you consider the skill positions even, you're picking between the Wisconsin OL's advantage over PSU's line and Morelli's advantage over whoever Wisconsin throws out there.

My point is this: if you're looking for a darkhorse challenger to consensus favorite Michigan in the Big Ten, this is probably your team. I kind of hate saying that what with JayPa and all, but there it is. The differences between UW and PSU last year laid mostly in the quality of their opponents. The defenses will both be stout, intimidating things; if you made me pick between the offenses I would wince and take the Nittany Lions.

That wincing would be justified; I agree for the most part with the above assessment but find Brian's lack of faith in the Wisconsin receiving corps disturbing. I don't blame him for underrating them, as UW and Michigan locked horns in the conference opener last year, and he probably didn't see much of the progress made by Hubbard and Swan as the season went forward. The fact that Hill and Beckum had more than half of the Badgers' receiving yardage in that game also makes the actual receivers seem all the more suspect. I realize that Brian is a lot more circumspect than this, but our perception of other teams' strengths and weaknesses are tinted by the games our own teams played against them.

Bottom line: I expect the Badger offense to be better than Penn State's, the defenses will be a wash, and a very strong coaching edge has to go to Bielema and his not-yet-past-the-expiration-date nepotism-free bevy of assistants. The Badgers will be the better team next year, have no doubt; it's the venue and the timing that frightens me about the Penn State game, and I think there's a better than 50% chance that the Badgers lose that game. However, I think the smart money is on Wisconsin if you're picking between them and the Lions for a Big Ten championship.

John Clay is academically ineligible

Jeff Potrykus -- as usual -- has the scoop:

John Clay, a former all-state tailback from Racine Park High School and a key member of the University of Wisconsin's 2007 freshman class, has failed to meet the NCAA's minimum academic eligibility standards and won't be allowed to play for UW this season.

...

Under NCAA rules, Clay will not be allowed to practice with the team in 2007-'08 or receive athletic aid and will lose a year of eligibility. He can regain that lost year of eligibility, however. To do that, he must complete 80% of his designated degree program by the beginning of his fifth academic year.

Without Clay, UW should have just three scholarship tailbacks on its roster when pre-season camp opens next month.

With any luck, Hill will bounce back from surgery and not miss a step (as he's expected to do), and Lance Smith and Zach Brown will turn out to be solid change-of-pace guys.

Study up, John!

A work of absolute genius

Go NOW and read T. Kyle King's The Sound and the Gameday, Part One. It's chock full of Faulknerian fancy. You will love it.

Things to read on while you're waiting for the weekend

New Northwestern blog Lake the Posts is counting down the Top 24(?) games in Northwestern football history. Expect the Badgers to figure prominently in this series ... they're already in there twice at #21 (the 1992 game) and #20 (the horrendous 2005 game in which the #14 Badgers gave up 51 points).

Bucky's Faithful does something I planned to do ... he has a four-part series about the Badgers' representatives in the NFL. You can see parts one, two, and three here. Part four begins with a prefatory note about Kammron Taylor, who worked out with the Minnesota Timberwolves. He has joined their summer league team, and I'm sure he's glad to have an opportunity to play with his hometown professional franchise.

Heh.

Stewart Mandel of Sports Illustrated believes the Wisconsin-Michigan game is the fourth-biggest game of the year, UW Athletics produced the 7th highest revenue total of all athletic departments last year, and Trev Alberts has discovered Barenjager.